Indian equity benchmarks took a
breather after two days of advance and settled in red on Friday dragged down by
heavy selling pressure in banking, financial and energy stocks amid mixed cues
from global markets. After the initial downtick, markets managed to keep their
heads above water as traders took some support with S&P Global Ratings'
report stating that India's GDP growth prospects should remain strong over the
medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 percent annually in fiscal years
2024-2026. Some support also came with provisional data from the National Stock
Exchange showing that foreign institutional investors net bought shares worth
Rs 957.25 crore on November 16. However, key gauges witnessed extremely
volatile trading trends in late morning deals and traded in a narrow band for
most part of the session, as traders got anxious after the Reserve Bank
tightened norms for consumer credit as it asked them to assign a higher risk
weight for unsecured personal loans, a move aimed at making the lenders more
cautious about such advances. Markets added some losses in late afternoon
deals, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest monthly bulletin for
November 2023 said that the global economy shows signs of slowing down in the
final quarter of 2023 as manufacturing languishes while services sector
activity appears to have reached the end of its post-pandemic expansion. It
also said that going forward, tightening financial conditions is a significant
risk to the global outlook. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 187.75 points or 0.28%
to 65,794.73 and the CNX Nifty was down by 33.40 points or 0.17% to 19,731.80.
The US markets ended Friday's
choppy session in green terrain with marginal gains as traders seemed to be
taking a moment to assess the recent strength in the markets. Optimism about
the outlook for interest rates has contributed to the recent advance, as the
latest data has shown signs of easing inflation. The data has reinforced
investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising
interest rates over the next several months before cutting rates in mid-2024.
The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 12-13, with
CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 100.0 percent chance the
central bank will leave rates unchanged. On the economic data front, the
Commerce Department released a report showing an unexpected increase in new
residential construction in the month of October. The report said housing
starts jumped by 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.372 million in October
after surging by 3.1 percent to a downwardly revised rate of 1.346 million in
September. Street had expected housing starts to dip to a rate of 1.350 million
from the 1.358 million originally reported for the previous month. The Commerce
Department said building permits also shot up by 1.1 percent to an annual rate
of 1.487 million in October after plunging by 4.5 percent to a revised rate of
1.471 million in September.
Crude oil futures ended sharply
higher on Friday with gains of around 4%, rebounding from a four-month low hit
in the previous session, as investors who had taken short positions took
profits. Also, U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil shippers lent support.
Meanwhile, a report released by Baker Hughes this afternoon showed the rig
count in the U.S. rose by 6 to 500 this week. The focus now is on the OPEC
meeting, scheduled to take place on November 26. Traders are waiting to see if
Saudi Arabia and Russia will consider rolling over their voluntary supply cuts
into 2024. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $2.99 or
about 4.1 percent to settle at $75.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $3.05 or nearly 4 percent to
settle at $80.47 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Rupee settled lower against
dollar on Friday as a firm greenback in the overseas markets and losses in
domestic equities weighed on investor sentiment. Investors were worried after
the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has tightened norms for unsecured personal
loans for banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). The risk weight on
unsecured consumer loans has been raised by 25 percentage points. However,
fresh FII inflows and crude oil prices trading near four-month lows helped the
rupee restrict losses. On the global
front, Russian rouble steadied near a more than four-month high against the
dollar on Friday, supported by exporters' foreign currency purchases and high
interest rates, but restrained from growth following a sharp drop in oil
prices. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.25 (Provisional), weaker by 2 paise from
its previous close of 83.23 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 13669.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 12343.78 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2201.91 crore with
gross sales of Rs 572.92 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying
was of Rs 2.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 17.95 crore.
The US markets ended higher on
Friday optimism about the outlook for interest rates has contributed to the
recent advance. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday after China left its
benchmark lending rates unchanged. Indian markets ended Friday's session lower
amid a weakness in finance stocks after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked
banks to set aside more capital while extending unsecured loans. Today, markets
are likely to get cautious start amid mixed Asian cues. Traders will be concerned
as the Reserve Bank said India's forex kitty decreased by $462 million to
$590.321 billion for the week ended November 10. In the previous reporting
week, the overall reserves had increased by $4.672 billion to $590.783 billion.
Some cautiousness will come as S&P Global Ratings said the hike in risk
weights for consumer loans like personal loan and credit cards may shave-off
tier I capital of banks by 60 basis points, hit loan growth, and squeeze the
nonbank sector in particular. S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Geeta Chugh
said the finance companies will be worse affected as their incremental bank
borrowing costs will surge, in addition to the capital adequacy impact. Traders
may take note of report that trade Minister Piyush Goyal has said India and the
United Kingdom (UK) would be able to resolve the pending issues for a
free-trade agreement (FTA) in the coming weeks, as the remaining issues were
not insurmountable. However, some respite may come as FPIs bought Indian
equities worth Rs 1,433 crore thus far in November, mainly due to the decline
in US treasury bond yields and crude oil prices. Foreign Portfolios Investors
(FPIs) were net sellers till November 15, after sustained selling in the last
two and a half months. Meanwhile, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Union
government V Anantha Nageswaran has said startups will play an important role
in helping India become the third largest economy in the world. There will be
some buzz in pharma stocks with report that the domestic pharmaceutical industry
has the potential to grow by 4-5 times to around $200 billion in value terms by
scaling up manufacturing and enhancing exports. Banking stocks will be in focus
as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) permitted banks to open additional current
account for exports proceeds in addition to special rupee vostro accounts with
a view to provide greater operational flexibility to exporters. There will be
some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as oilmeals exports rose 36 per
cent last month to nearly 2.9 lakh tonnes on higher shipments of soyabean meal
and rapeseed meal. E-commerce industry stocks will be in limelight as Santosh
Kumar Sarangi, director general (DG), Directorate General of Foreign Trade
(DGFT) said India's e-commerce ecosystem is about to explode in the near future
as exports may touch $200 billion during the next six-seven years from the
current $1.2 billion.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
19,731.80
|
19,664.16
|
19,802.71
|
BSE
Sensex
|
65,794.73
|
65,610.41
|
66,008.36
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
State
Bank of India
|
371.73
|
562.90
|
558.50
|
570.90
|
Tata
Steel
|
233.19
|
125.00
|
124.29
|
125.74
|
Power
Grid
|
167.05
|
209.00
|
207.04
|
210.84
|
Coal
India
|
135.43
|
345.60
|
342.41
|
348.66
|
Axis
Bank
|
132.68
|
992.65
|
983.00
|
1011.15
|
- State Bank of India is planning
to launch its banking mobile app Yono Global in Singapore and the US, offering
digitalized remittance and other services to its customers.
- JSW Steel has withdrawn its
application for the Final Mine Closure Plan submitted before the Indian Bureau
of Mines for the purpose of surrender of Jajang Iron Ore Block located in the
district of Keonjhar, Odisha, after considering demand and supply scenario of
Iron Ore in India.
- UPL has opened its Global NPP
Research Center in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico.
- Bharti Airtel has extended 5G
coverage to all 24 districts of Punjab.