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NSE Intra-day chart (19 June 2023)
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FII Activity(Rs. Cr)
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Market Commentary 20 June 2023
Benchmarks likely to get negative start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Monday led by losses in Telecom, Power, Utilities and Realty stocks amid a weak trend in global markets. Markets made a slightly positive start, as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued to invest in Indian equities for a fourth straight month as they injected Rs 16,405 crore in June so far on the country's strong economic rebound and positive growth outlook. Some support also came with the Finance Ministry stating that net direct tax collection till June 17 this fiscal rose by 11.18 per cent to Rs 3.80 lakh crore on higher advance tax mop up. The Advance Tax collections for the April-June quarter of 2023-24 stood at Rs 1,16,776 crore as of June 17, reflecting a growth of 13.70 per cent over the same period last fiscal. However, markets soon cut early gains and slipped into red, as traders turned cautious with the Reserve Bank of India's statement that India's forex reserves dropped by $1.318 billion to $593.749 billion for the week ended June 9. Selling further crept in with a private report warning that with the delayed monsoon, there is no scope for complacency on inflation even though official data for May has shown a cool-off. It expects the average Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for FY24 to come to 5.2 per cent against the 5.1 per cent estimate of the Reserve Bank of India. Traders overlooked SBI Research's report stating that though the Reserve Bank of India may have decided to withdraw Rs 2000 banknotes from circulation as a part of its currency management, the move is likely to boost various macroeconomic parameters. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 216.28 points or 0.34% to 63,168.30 and the CNX Nifty was down by 70.55 points or 0.37% to 18,755.45.

 

The US markets were closed on Monday in observance of Juneteenth.

 

The Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Monday. Traders ignored Finance Ministry's statement that net direct tax collection till June 17 this fiscal rose by 11.18 per cent to Rs 3.80 lakh crore on higher advance tax mop up. The Advance Tax collections for the April-June quarter of 2023-24 stood at Rs 1,16,776 crore as of June 17, reflecting a growth of 13.70 per cent over the same period last fiscal. On the global front, the pound hit a 10-month high versus the euro on Monday as investors waited for British inflation data and a Bank of England decision later in the week. Besides, Russian rouble edged higher on Monday, reclaiming some of last week's losses as foreign currency supply begins to pick up, but geopolitical risks and lower oil prices continuing to exert downward pressure. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.93 (Provisional), weaker by 3 paise from its previous close of 81.90 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 17168.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 16987.34 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1800.80 crore against gross selling of Rs 704.90 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.95 crore.

 

The US markets were shut on Monday on account of Juneteenth holiday. Asian markets are trading in red on Tuesday following the rate cut announcement wherein China's one-year and five-year loan prime rate have been slashed by 10 basis points. Indian markets ended Monday's session lower, tracking weak cues from global markets. Today, Sensex and Nifty are likely to continue previous session's southward journey with a negative start tracking lackluster trade in Asian counterparts. Investors also await the testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in markets that remain dominated by monetary policy bets. Foreign fund outflows likely to be dent domestic sentiments. As per the data, foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,030.90 crore on June 19. There will be some cautiousness with report that the UK's decision to withdraw duty benefit scheme GSP may impact Indian exporters from certain labour-intensive sectors such as leather and textiles as they were the major beneficiaries. The UK is replacing the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) with a new Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS) from June 19. Besides, a report said private equity and venture capital funds' investment in the country continued to fall in May, with the overall values declining by nearly 44 per cent to $3.5 billion. The dedicated funds had invested $6.2 billion in May 2022 and $7.4 billion in the preceding month of April 2023, representing a dip of 44 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively. However, some support may come later in the day as the government said India and the UK concluded the tenth round of talks for a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) last week, and the next round of negotiations is due to take place in the coming month. Also, the latest payroll data showed that employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) has added 17.88 lakh new subscribers in April 2023. Meanwhile, the government has started interministerial discussions on the upcoming Insolvency and Bankruptcy (IBC) amendment Bill, which proposes an overhaul of the law. The Bill proposes a separate framework for real estate insolvency with certain exemptions. Adani Group stocks will be in focus after Adani Enterprises and Adani Transmission received shareholder approval to raise funds up to Rs. 21,000 crore through qualified institutional placements.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,755.45

18,689.25

18,851.55

BSE Sensex

63,168.30

62,952.53

63,479.39

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

335.02

114.20

112.96

115.51

ICICI Bank

193.51

922.35

916.05

931.30

State Bank of India

179.04

569.20

565.81

572.66

HDFC Bank

124.15

1604.90

1597.41

1613.31

Adani Enterprises

114.76

2411.45

2333.76

2505.36

 

  • Tata Steel is planning a consolidated capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 16,000 crore for its domestic and global operations during the current financial year. 
  • Bajaj Finserv's subsidiary -- Bajaj Markets is offering a wide range of financial products including Sovereign Gold Bonds. 
  • Titan Company's women's ethnic wear brand -- Taneira has expanded its presence in Hyderabad with the opening of its fourth store. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has started pre-launch bookings for its latest premium 3-Row UV, INVICTO, in the NEXA channel.
News Analysis