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NSE Intra-day chart (18 July 2023)
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Market Commentary 19 July 2023
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks extended their winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, settling at their fresh closing peaks on Tuesday amid positive global cues and upbeat India Inc earnings. Markets started the day on a strong note as traders found support with Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry's (FICCI) latest quarterly survey on manufacturing revealing that sentiment is positive during the first quarter (Q1). It also observed that after a revival in the Indian economy in FY22, momentum of growth has continued in the subsequent quarters as well. Traders also took support with private report stating that the globally elevated interest rates are set to buoy the returns from the Reserve Bank's foreign investments to the tune of $6-8 billion this fiscal, which will help the monetary authority pay higher dividend to the government and also buffer up the forex reserves a la the FY21 fashion. However, profit booking in the second half erased most of the intraday gains. Traders also got anxious as RBI's monthly bulletin noted that the Gross foreign direct investments (FDI) into India moderated to $12.2 billion in April-May 2023, from $16.5 billion in April-May 2022. Gross FDI had moderated from $84.8 billion in FY22 to $71.4 billion in FY23.  Some concern also came as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stating that the developed economies are under stress, and there is a demand slowdown in the world market. However, key indices managed to end session in green, taking support from Union Minister for Education & Skill development & Entrepreneurship Dharmendra Pradhan's statement that India is home to world's third largest startup ecosystem. He underlined that Young India's innovation and creativity coupled with supportive government policies like the Digital India, Startup India are enabling the country's youth to become job creators. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 205.21 points or 0.31% to 66,795.14 and the CNX Nifty was up by 37.80 points or 0.19% to 19,749.25.

 

Magnifying previous session's gains, the US markets settled higher on Tuesday. Sentiments got a boost amid positive reaction to earnings news from big-name companies like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). Shares of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley soared by 4.4 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, after both financial giants reported second quarter results that exceeded street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and PNC Financial Services (PNC) also posted strong gains after reporting their quarterly results. Some support came in with the release of separate reports showing a smaller than expected increase in retail sales and an unexpected decrease in industrial production. While the reports have led to some concerns about the strength of the economy, the data has added to recent optimism about the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle. The Commerce Department said retail sales edged up by 0.2 percent in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.5 percent in May. Street had expected retail sales to advance by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.3 percent growth originally reported for the previous month. Excluding a modest increase in sales by motor vehicles and parts dealers, retail sales still rose by 0.2 percent in June after rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in May. Street had expected ex-auto sales to increase by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, the Fed said industrial production slid by 0.5 percent in June, matching the downwardly revised decrease in May. Street had expected production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.2 percent dip originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday, amid fall in the dollar after data showed a drop in U.S. retail sales and a dip in industrial production in the month of June. Some support came in on expectations of an end to the Fed's rate hikes. Resumption of supplies from Libya as well as hopes of stimulus from China also supported the rebound. Traders are eyeing weekly oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery rose $1.60 or about 2.2 percent to settle at $75.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for September delivery gained $1.06 or about 1.35 percent to settle at $79.56 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended flat against the American currency on Tuesday. Traders got cautious as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that the developed economies are under stress, and there is a demand slowdown in the world market. Besides, an article published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its July bulletin has said that India's real Gross domestic product (GDP) needs to grow at 7.6 per cent annually over the next 25 years to achieve the per capita income level to become a developed economy. On the global front, dollar drifted near a 15-month low against its major peers on Tuesday, as investors awaited fresh catalysts to gauge for downside in the wake of last week's cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation. Finally, the rupee ended flat with its previous close of 82.03 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8596.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 8091.36 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 340.31 crore with gross sales of Rs 144.51 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 8.03 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday partly boosted by a round of solid bank earnings which helped put the Dow on track for its longest streak of daily gains in more than two years. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday. Business sentiment among manufacturers in Japan declined for the first time in six months in July. Indian markets settled off record highs on Tuesday as profit booking at higher levels capped the market rally. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues. Traders will be concerned as International Monetary Fund Managing Director (MD) Kristalina Georgieva said the medium-term growth prospects for the global economy remain weak, and elevated food and fertilizer prices are particularly worrying. Georgieva said inflation could remain higher for longer, requiring even more monetary policy tightening. However, some respite may come later in the day on foreign fund inflows. The provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) have bought shares worth Rs 2,115.84 crore on July 18. Some support may come as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) retained forecast for India's economic growth at 6.4 per cent for this fiscal year and 6.7 per cent for the next, as it's bullish that robust domestic demand will continue to support the region's recovery. Besides, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri and US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm noted the growing importance of bilateral energy cooperation between US and India and underscored the importance of bilateral clean energy engagement.  Meanwhile, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said various issues surrounding cryptocurrencies were discussed at a key G20 meeting here and Indias inputs will play an important role in formulating a comprehensive global policy for the new-age assets. Textile industry stocks will be in focus as the Centre said it has decided to re-open the portal for inviting fresh applications from interested companies under the Production Linked Incentive scheme for Textiles till August 31, 2023 in view of requests from industry stakeholders. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with a private report that India's aviation market has a huge potential waiting to be tapped, and a growing middle-class and a young population usually showing a greater propensity to travel will contribute to its growth. There will be lots of earnings reaction to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,749.25

19,686.49

19,815.74

BSE Sensex

66,795.14

66,577.40

67,009.95

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

HDFC Bank

405.38

1678.00

1664.00

1698.00

ICICI Bank

297.10

975.95

968.75

985.55

State Bank of India

257.57

592.50

586.15

601.45

Tata Steel

234.33

116.60

115.95

117.70

Infosys

167.44

1476.00

1444.01

1492.96

 

  • Tata Motors has launched the new-generation, cutting edge range of gensets in India. 
  • Infosys has successfully completed the foundation phase of a major digital program for Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, one of Australia's biggest banks. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has introduced a pedestrian safety vehicle alarm feature in the electric hybrid variants of its SUV Grand Vitara, which will push up prices by up to Rs 4,000. 
  • IndusInd Bank has reported 30.25% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2124.50 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2023 as compared to Rs 1631.14 crore for Q1FY23.
News Analysis