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NSE Intra-day chart (18 April 2023)
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Market Commentary 19 April 2023
Markets likely to get flat-to-negative start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks languished in negative territory for the most part of the trading session and ended weak for the second day in a row on Tuesday as investors remained cautious amid disappointing earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys.  Markets opened on a positive note but soon reversed their gains as fresh foreign fund outflows dented sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 533.20 crore on Monday, according to exchange data. Some concern also came amid private reports that Rakesh Mohan, a part-time member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said that after the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) it will not be surprising if more financial institutions fail globally, but no direct impact is expected on Indian banks, though a reversal of capital flows and the consequent impact on the exchange rate could affect the economy. Traders also took a note of report that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called for urgently addressing India's trade imbalance with Russia even as he described the partnership between the two countries as among the steadiest of major relationships globally. However, markets managed to trim some losses in late afternoon deals. Traders took some support with report that the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is aiming to get a clear picture of the country's logistics costs in the next four months. At present, the government is going by certain estimates, which suggest that India's logistics cost stands at about 13-14 per cent of the country's GDP (gross domestic product). Meanwhile, India will appeal against a ruling of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) trade dispute settlement panel which ruled that the country's import dues on certain information and technology products are inconsistent with the global trade norms. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 183.74 points or 0.31% to 59,727.01 and the CNX Nifty was down by 46.70 points or 0.26% to 17,660.15.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates and looked to more earnings and data for clarity about the state of the economy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said that he favored continued interest-rate hikes to counter persistent inflation. Bullard said recession fears are overblown. In earnings reports, Bank of America reported higher than expected revenue and earnings for the first quarter. The company's first-quarter earnings totaled $7.66 billion, or $0.94 per share. This compares with $6.60 billion, or $0.80 per share, in last year's first quarter. United Airlines Holdings reported a loss of $0.19 billion for the first quarter, compared with a loss of $1.38 billion in the year-ago quarter. Johnson & Johnson's results beat market expectations, but the company still reported a net loss due to a one-time charges related to talc liabilities and the company spinning off its consumer health business. On the economic data front, data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. housing starts slid by 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.420 million in March from a revised rate of 1.432 million in February. Street had expected housing starts to decline to a rate of 1.400 million from the 1.450 million originally reported for the previous month. The data also showed building permits plunged by 8.8 percent to a rate of 1.413 million in March from a revised rate of 1.550 million in February. Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, were expected to fall to a rate of 1.441 million from the 1.524 million originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended slightly higher on Tuesday amid traders assessed Chinese industrial production and GDP data. Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics showed the nation's gross domestic product was up 4.5% on year in the first quarter of 2023. Traders now await weekly crude inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA is scheduled to release its inventory data on Wednesday. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $0.03 to settle at $80.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery added $0.01 to settle at $84.76 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally lower against dollar on Tuesday tracking negative sentiments in the domestic equities market. The outflow of foreign funds from equities market also dented traders' sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 533.20 crore on Monday, according to exchange data. Some concern also came amid private reports that Rakesh Mohan, a part-time member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said that after the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) it will not be surprising if more financial institutions fail globally, but no direct impact is expected on Indian banks, though a reversal of capital flows and the consequent impact on the exchange rate could affect the economy. However, a weak greenback against major currencies and falling crude prices resisted the fall in the domestic unit. On the global front, dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday after better-than-forecast growth data from China, while strong pay figures from Britain supported the pound. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.04 (Provisional), weaker by 3 paise from its previous close of 82.01 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13351.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 12929.81 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 446.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 1448.12 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11.60 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.81 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday with investors mostly making stock specific moves, reacting to quarterly earnings updates and digesting the latest economic data. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday as interest rate concerns continue to outweigh fairly strong Chinese GDP growth. Indian markets remained under selling pressure for the second straight day on Tuesday as investors preferred to book some gains following the recent steep rally. Today, start of session is likely to be flat-to-negative tracking weakness in the global markets. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent domestic sentiments. National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 810.60 crore on April 18. There will be some cautiousness with a private report that deal activities declined 35 per cent to $9.7 billion across 332 transactions in the first quarter of 2023 due to an overall decline in deal activities as the fear of a global recession has gained more traction amid the continuing war on Ukraine. Of the total deals, M&As constituted more than half, still lower by 21 per cent at $4.4 billion involving 76 deals, down 56 per cent during the March quarter. However, some support may come later in the day with a private report that India last year got 20 per cent of the total private equity and venture capital (PE-VC) investments in the Asia Pacific, making the country a bright spot amid decelerating capital flow in the region. Meanwhile, the Income Tax Department of India stated that there is currently no proposal before the government regarding the capital gains tax. There will be some buzz in the jewelry industry stocks as GJEPC said India's overall gem and jewellery exports grew marginally by 2.48 per cent to Rs 3,00,462.52 crore ($37,468.66 million) in 2022-23 due to global challenges like inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and the lockdown in China for almost six months. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that Indian mills produced 31.1 million tonnes of sugar since the current season began on Oct. 1, a fall of 5.4% year on year, as many mills closed early due to limited availability of sugar cane. There will be some reaction in textiles and apparel sector stocks as the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) said that healthy investments, innovation and integration with value chains will help India's textiles and apparel sector to register healthy growth in manufacturing and exports. Oil & gas industry stocks will be in limelight as the government reportedly increased the windfall gain tax on domestic crude production to Rs 6,400/tonne from zero. Windfall gain tax on diesel export has been reduced to nil from Rs 0.50/ltr. Petrol and ATF exports have been kept out of the ambit of windfall gain tax. Meanwhile, investors continue to keep watch on earnings update from many companies for more cues.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,660.15

17,591.36

17,747.76

BSE Sensex

59,727.01

59,499.71

60,033.88

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

266.99

896.00

890.75

904.60

Tata Steel

254.76

107.55

106.96

108.01

State Bank of India

222.83

545.25

541.00

549.00

Axis Bank

172.39

864.75

857.24

872.14

NTPC

162.00

170.20

169.21

170.96

 

  • Tata Motors has launched the new Nexon EV in its DARK avatar. 
  • Infosys has been recognized as a launch partner for the Amazon Web Services Cloud Operations Specialization.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has manufactured its electric SUV XUV400 with 100% Renewable Energy & in a Water Positive set-up. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has been scaling up its capabilities not just in providing customer-centric products, but also by offering holistic services to customers with the aim of providing Joy of Mobility to all.
News Analysis