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NSE Intra-day chart (14 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 18 October 2021
Benchmarks likely to make flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues


Indian equity benchmarks extended their winning run to sixth consecutive trading session and posted record closing highs yet again on Thursday. Barring auto index, buying demand was seen across the board with banking, PSU and metal stocks moving the most. After opening in the green, the markets witnessed the continuation of a positive trend, as sentiments got boost with Retailers Association of India (RAI) said retail sales in September this year were at 96 per cent of the pre-pandemic levels of the same month in 2019 as the sector shows signs of recovery. Support also came with World Bank president David Malpass' statement that the Indian economy that was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic is now in recovery mode. He also said that India, which faces huge challenges of integrating more people into the formal sector economy and raising the earnings of the people, has made some progress but that's not enough. Key benchmark indices added more points in late afternoon session as India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 10.66% in the month of September as against 11.39% in August. The annual rate of inflation is 10.66% (Provisional) for the month of September 2021 as compared to 1.32% in September 2020. Traders also took a note of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that as the Indian economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic that hit it hard, it is important for the country to focus on public investment, particularly in green sectors so that the recovery can be inclusive and green. Traders were also took support as Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) stood as  net buyers in the capital market, as they purchased shares worth Rs 937.31 crore on Wednesday, as per exchange data. Meanwhile, Members of the influential US India Business Council in their meeting with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has praised India's reform trajectory and exuded confidence in the growing Indian economy. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 568.90 points or 0.94% to 61,304.95 and the CNX Nifty was up by 176.80 points or 0.97% to 18,338.55.


The US markets ended significantly higher on Friday as another batch of upbeat earnings news contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street, with financial giant Goldman Sachs (GS) posting a strong gain after reporting much better than expected third quarter results. Buying interest was also generated in reaction to a report from the Commerce Department showing an unexpected increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of September. The report said retail sales climbed by 0.7 percent in September after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in August. The continued sales growth came as a surprise to market participants, who had expected retail sales to edge down by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.7 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Excluding sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales advanced by 0.8 percent in September after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.0 percent in August. Street had expected ex-auto sales to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.8 percent jump originally reported for the previous month. A separate report from the Labor Department showed import prices in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the month of September. The Labor Department said import prices rose by 0.4 percent in September after dipping by 0.3 percent in August. Street had expected import prices to climb by 0.6 percent. The report also showed export prices inched up by 0.1 percent in September after rising by 0.4 percent in the previous month. Export prices were also expected to increase by 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the University of Michigan unexpectedly showing a modest deterioration in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of October. The report showed the consumer sentiment index slipped to 71.4 in October from 72.8 in September. The dip surprised market participants, who had expected the index to inch up to 73.1.


Crude oil futures settled higher on Friday, with the International Energy Agency's report saying oil demand is likely to increase significantly due to the energy crunch continuing to support prices. The IEA said on Thursday that the energy crunch will likely boost oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day. Oil prices also found support after Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ production increases, saying the group's unwinding of production cuts was protecting the oil market from the wild price swings seen in the natural gas and coal markets. Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a sixth week in a row. Benchmark Crude oil futures for November delivery surged $0.97 or about 1.2 percent to settle at $82.28 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery rose about 1 percent to settle at $84.46 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Continuing previous session gains, Indian rupee ended higher against dollar for second straight session on Thursday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders got support as India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 10.66% in the month of September as against 11.39% in August. Adding more optimism, World Bank president David Malpass' statement that the Indian economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic is now in recovery mode. He also said that India, which faces huge challenges of integrating more people into the formal sector economy and raising the earnings of the people, has made some progress but that's not enough. Also, healthy gains in domestic equity markets supported rupee. On the global front; dollar edged down against major peers on Thursday, reaching its lowest level in 10 days in a pullback from its recent rally. Finally, the rupee ended 75.26, stronger by 11 paise from its previous close of 75.37 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9086.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 7830.19 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs. 1101.81 crore with gross sales of Rs 1037.94 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 20.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.75 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday after Goldman Sachs rounded out a strong earnings season for big banks. A surprise rise in retail sales strengthened views about economic recovery. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday ahead of the release of Chinese economic data for the third quarter. Indian markets ended higher on Thursday on account of gains across sectors led by financial, IT and metal. The Indian market remained closed on Friday for Dussehra holiday. Today, the start of new week is likely to be flat-to-positive amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement as Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan said The Indian economy is bouncing back strongly, domestic consumption is increasing and industrial production is at pre-COVID level, he also emphasized that the reforms implemented by the government has provided fillip to the business ecosystem in the country. Traders may take note of report that Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said The Indian government remains committed to bring the economy on the path of fiscal consolidation in the near-to-medium term, setting the target to reduce fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent by 2025-26. However, traders may be concerned as data released by the government showed India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $22.6 billion in September, the highest in at least about 14 years, as crude oil and gold imports surged. There may be some cautiousness with report that the sharp economic recovery and rising demand post the second wave of Covid coupled with a spike in global oil prices may pose a challenge for the government in FY22 to maintain fiscal discipline amid good growth in tax revenue. Country's crude oil Import bill that fell drastically last year in the absence of demand and soft oil prices, has risen by over 138 per cent in April-August of FY22 to $ 42 billion, up from close to $ 18 billion the same period of last year. Aviation industry stocks will be in limelight as the Ministry of Civil Aviation allowed airlines to operate at 100 percent capacity. There will be some buzz in jewelry industry stocks as data from the Commerce Ministry showed that Gold imports, which have a bearing on the current account deficit, zoomed to about $ 24 billion during April-September 2021 due to higher demand in the country. Power stocks will be in focus as power ministry data showed that India's power consumption grew 3.35 per cent in the first half of October to 57.22 billion units (BU), showing recovery amid coal shortage at electricity generation plants. There will be some reaction in sponge iron industry as Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association (SIMA) stated that the domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter if the shortage of coal is allowed to continue. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • TCS has launched the enhanced TCS BaNCS Marketplace, an innovation hub for customers to collaborate and adopt cutting-edge partner solutions compatible with the TCS BaNCS suite, spanning banking, capital markets, and insurance domains. 
  • Coal India's subsidiary -- MCL has further increased its business operations, with an average daily coal despatch crossing 5.1 lakh tonne in October, as it also keeps a close watch on the stock situation of dry fuel in thermal power plants in Odisha. 
  • UltraTech Cement is commissioning additional 1.2 mtpa cement capacity in October, 2021. 
  • Tata Motors has completed the successful installation of the complete vehicle charging infrastructure at of the Worli BEST depot.
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