Indian equity benchmarks managed to end Wednesday's session marginally in green after swinging between gains and losses ahead of the weekly F&O expiry. Investors kept a close eye on the Ukraine-Russia war situation with Poland reportedly being hit by Russian missiles. Markets made negative start, as traders got concerned with data released by the commerce ministry showing that India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion in October as exports crashed by 17 percent year-on-year to $29.78 billion while imports rose by 6 percent. The trade deficit stood at $17.91 billion in October 2021. Some pessimism also came in as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net offloaded shares worth Rs 221.32 crore on Tuesday, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. But, key indices soon reversed losses and traded in green in afternoon deals, taking support from the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) chairman Nitin Gupta's statement that direct tax collections are likely to be 25-30% more than the budget estimate (BE) of Rs 14.2 trillion for the current fiscal. Markets wiped out all their gains and once again fell into red terrain in late afternoon session amid volatility. Traders also remained cautious as global ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has given a negative outlook to credit worthiness of countries globally including India, for 2023, saying high prices of food and energy would curb economic growth and raise social tensions. It said tighter financial conditions and economic scarring will push some debt burdens to unsustainable levels, while rising borrowing costs will erode debt affordability. But selective buying in late trades helped key indices to end in positive territory. Traders also took a note of reports that States got some reprieve in their debt cost with the weighted average price falling by 12 bps to 7.67 per cent due to receding appetite from issuers as they received tax payouts from the Centre last week. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 107.73 points or 0.17% to 61,980.72 and the CNX Nifty was up by 6.25 points or 0.03% to 18,409.65.

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday, with Nasdaq settling cut of one and half percent, amid a steep drop by shares of Target (TGT), with the retail giant plunging by 13.1 percent. Target came under pressure after reporting weaker than expected third quarter earnings and slashing its operating margin forecast for the current quarter. Traders were also digesting a mixed batch of U.S. economic data, which added to recent uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates. The Commerce Department released a report showing a significant increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of October. The report showed retail sales surged by 1.3 percent in October after coming in unchanged in September. Street had expected retail sales to jump by 1.0 percent. Excluding a sharp increase in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still shot up by 1.3 percent in October after inching up by 0.1 percent in September. Ex-auto sales were expected to rise by 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released a separate report unexpectedly showing a modest decrease in US industrial production in the month of October. The Fed said industrial production edged down by 0.1 percent in October following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in September. The dip surprised participants, who had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. On the sectoral front, semiconductor stocks showed a substantial pullback on the day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 4.3 percent after ending the preceding session at its best closing level in well over two months. Significant weakness was also visible among airline stocks, as reflected by the 3.9 percent nosedive by the NYSE Arca Airline Index.

Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday amid concerns about the outlook for demand from China due to rising Covid-19 cases. Further, resumption of Russian oil shipments to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline weighed as well. Supply to certain parts of Eastern and Central Europe via the pipeline had been suspended on Tuesday for technical reasons. Besides, oil prices dropped despite data showing a larger-than-expected drop in crude inventories in the US. Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories dropped by 5.4 million barrels in the week ended November 11 versus expectations for a decline of 440,000 barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $1.33 or about 1.5 percent at $85.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $1.00 or about 1.07 percent to settle at $92.86 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Wednesday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Investors maintained cautious approach, as global ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has given a negative outlook to credit worthiness of countries globally including India, for 2023, saying high prices of food and energy would curb economic growth and raise social tensions. It said tighter financial conditions and economic scarring will push some debt burdens to unsustainable levels, while rising borrowing costs will erode debt affordability. On the global front, sterling rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday following UK inflation data that topped expectations and raised the chances of yet more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). Finally, the rupee ended at 81.25 (Provisional), weaker by 34 paisa from its previous close of 80.91 on Tuesday.

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7548.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 7674.82 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 930.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 492.12 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 17.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 58.60 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data faded hopes of Fed easing aggressive rate hike cycle. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday following overnight losses on Wall Street. Indian markets ended Wednesday's session slightly higher after fluctuating in early trade on rising geopolitical tensions. Today, markets are likely to open in red tracking weakness across global markets. Also, there will be some volatility in the markets on account of weekly F&O expiry.  Foreign fund outflow likely to weighed down on domestic sentiments. According to provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors have net sold shares worth Rs 386.06 crore on November 16. However, some respite may come later in the day with the commerce ministry's data showing that India's exports to the UAE, with which a free trade agreement was implemented on May 1, rose by 17.6 per cent to about $18 billion during April-October this fiscal. Some support may come with a private report that after declining for three consecutive quarters, the value of FPI investment in Indian equities rose 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $566 billion in the July-September period. Traders may take note of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India will be launching negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with a region next week. He said that negotiations are going on with countries, including the UK, European Union, Canada and Israel. Banking sector stocks will be in limelight as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said that despite challenges, the Indian banking sector has been resilient and improved in various performance parameters. There will be some buzz in sugar industry stocks as the government notified exports of 8,606 tonnes of raw cane sugar under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) scheme to the US. Oil & gas industry stocks will be in focus as the government hiked windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil while reducing the rate on export of diesel. The tax on crude oil produced by firms such as state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), was hiked to Rs 10,200 per tonne, from Rs 9,500 per tonne, with effect from November 17. There will be some reaction in airline industry stocks amid report that the government will increase the regional air connectivity levy charged from airlines operating on major routes to Rs 10,000 per departure from January 1, a move that could push the airfares higher.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Bharti Airtel has launched 5G services at around 13 locations in Gurugram. 
• TCS has been selected as a strategic partner by TAP Air Portugal to accelerate its digital transformation and drive innovation. 
• Tech Mahindra has been selected as the digital transformation partner for Nynas AB, a Swedish manufacturer of specialty oils - naphthenic and bitumen products.
• Reliance Industries telecom arm -- Jio is aiming to bring major parts of Kolkata under its 5G service by December of this year and the work will be completed by June 2023.