Late hour recovery helped Indian equity benchmarks to end in green terrain on Thursday, with both Sensex and Nifty closing marginally higher. After a negative start, markets remained lower for the most part of the trading session, tracking weakness across global peers after the FOMC minutes showed that officials expect a mild recession in the US later this year. Continued rise in oil prices also dampened the sentiments in the domestic markets. Traders were concerned over the growth prospects as the UN Trade and Development Conference (UNCTAD) in its latest Trade and Development Report Update stated that India's economic growth is projected to decelerate to 6 per cent in 2023 from 6.6 per cent in 2022. Market participants paid no heed towards easing retail inflation and growth of industrial production. CPI-based retail inflation in India eased further and fell to a 15-month low of 5.66% in March on an annual basis as food inflation moderated on account of falling vegetable prices. Also, India's industrial output rose to 5.6 per cent in February from 5.5 per cent in January 2023, mainly due to good performance of the power, mining and manufacturing sectors. Besides, National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,907.95 crore on April 12. Losses got intensified during afternoon deals, as investors remained cautious after Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India remains concerned about the global economic outlook and geopolitical environment, despite this year's projected growth rate of over six percent for the country's economy. However, in the last leg of the trade, following positive European markets, key indices staged sharp recovery to settle its heads above water for the ninth straight session, buoyed by fag-end buying in banking, Auto and realty stocks. Some relief came with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country's exports rose by about 6 per cent to a record $447 billion during 2022-23 on account of healthy growth in the outbound shipments of sectors such as petroleum, pharma and chemicals and marine. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 38.23 points or 0.06% to 60,431.00 and the CNX Nifty was up by 15.60 points or 0.09% to 17,828.00.

The US markets settled in red on Friday with the release of a report from the University of Michigan showing a jump in year-ahead inflation expectations in the month of April. The preliminary report said one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6 percent in April from 3.6 percent in March. At the same time, five-year inflation expectations held at 2.9 percent for fifth straight month and have stayed within the narrow 2.9 to 3.1 percent range for 20 of the last 21 months. Traders are also digesting a slew of other U.S. economic data, including a report from the Commerce Department showing retail sales fell by much more than expected in the month of March. The Commerce Department said retail sales slumped by 1.0 percent in March after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in February. Street had expected retail sales to decline by 0.4 percent, matching the decrease originally reported for the previous month. Excluding a steep drop in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still slid by 0.8 percent in March after coming in unchanged in February. Ex-auto sales were expected to dip by 0.3 percent. A separate report from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial production increased by more than expected in March, although the increase was largely due to a spike in utilities output. Financial giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted a standout gain after reporting record quarterly revenue that exceeded street estimates. Meanwhile, traders looking forward to reports on the latest housing data as well as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book in the coming week.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday supported by International Energy Agency's (IEA's) forecast that global crude demand will grow to a record 101.9 million barrels per day this year. The IEA said in its monthly oil market report that oil demand will grow by 2 million barrels per day in 2023, driven mostly by stronger Chinese consumption after the lifting of COVID restrictions. The IEA expects supply to remain tight, and sees a drop of 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. Meanwhile, data from Baker Hughes showed the total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 3 this week, after falling 4 last week. The total rig count fell to 748 this week. Oil rigs dropped by 2 this week to 588, while gas rigs fell by 1 to 157. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery gained 6 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $82.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery added 22 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $86.31 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.    

Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar on Thursday, tracking the broad weakness of the American currency in the overseas market. Sentiments were upbeat after India's retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March 2023 and came back to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) comfort level of 6 per cent. The CPI was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, India's factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose marginally to 5.6 per cent in February 2023 from 5.5 per cent in January 2023. On the global front, dollar fell to a two-month low on Thursday after data showed U.S. inflation slowed sharply in March, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve's rate hiking campaign is either already finished or will be by May. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.84 (Provisional), stronger by 27 paise from its previous close of 82.11 on Wednesday.

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8451.90 crore against gross selling of Rs 6299.98 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 614.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 604.85 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 188.17 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched first-quarter earnings season. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday following a lower close on Wall Street. Indian markets ended with marginal gains and extended the winning run for the ninth consecutive session on Thursday. Markets remained closed on Friday on account of Holiday. Today, markets are likely to get negative start following weakness in global peers. Lower-than-expected set of earning from index heavyweights Infosys and HDFC Bank, likely to dampen sentiments in the markets. Investors will be looking ahead to the wholesale price index (WPI) data to be out later in the day. Traders will be taking encouragement as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Indian economy will stay on course and is likely to grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23. Sitharaman highlighted that a conducive domestic policy environment, along with the government's focus on structural reforms, has kept domestic economic activity in India robust. Besides, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal has said Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding a modest cut in growth projections by multilateral lending agencies. Sanyal further said that given the uncertainties in the global economy, India's performance is clearly far ahead of any other comparable economy. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments.  Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 221.85 crore on April 13, National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed. Some support will come as the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) stated that signing of free trade agreement between India and the European Union would help promote economic ties between the region and New Delhi. Vice President CII and Chairman and Managing Director, Sanjiv Puri, emphasised that signing of India-EU free trade agreement could be a catalyst for further enhancing India-Italy relationship. Meanwhile, Piyush Goyal stated that India will prioritize safeguarding the interests of its farmers and dairy sector in the proposed free trade agreement with the European Union. Besides, India's foreign currency reserves rose by $6.3 billion to $584.75 billion in the week ended April 7, the highest level during the past nine months or so. The reserves were higher, at $588 billion, in the week ended July 1, 2022. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks with industry body SEA's statement that eible oil imports rose 8 per cent year-on-year in March to 11.35 lakh tonnes, and demanded that the duty difference between crude palm oil and refined palm oil should be increased to protect domestic refineries. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said edible oil imports rose to 11,35,600 tonnes in March from 10,51,698 tonnes in the year-ago period.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Infosys has reported rise of 7.71% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 6134 crore for Q4FY23 as compared to Rs 5695 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
• Tech Mahindra and Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison have launched Google Cloud Smart Analytics and CoE lab, powered by Google Cloud, to accelerate nation's digital transformation. 
• Maruti Suzuki India has signed Memorandum of Understanding with IDFC FIRST Bank.  
• Reliance Industries has started the process to set up an infrastructure investment trust, under which the group can monetise the backend warehousing and logistics assets of its retail business.