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NSE Intra-day chart (16 February 2021)
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Market Commentary 17 February 2021
Benchmarks to open in red amid lackluster global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended Tuesday's session slightly in red despite scaling record highs earlier in the day. Domestic equity markets began trading with gains taking support from the commerce ministry's data showing that growing for the second consecutive month, the country's exports rose 6.16 per cent year-on-year to $27.45 billion in January 2021 following healthy growth in pharma and engineering sectors. Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $14.54 billion from $15.3 billion in January 2020. It was $15.44 billion in December 2020. Imports in January 2021 rose 2 per cent to $42 billion. Some support also came with a private report that economic activity is on the verge of normality after getting severely hit by COVID-19 and Indian GDP will grow at 13.5 per cent in FY22. Sentiments remained positive with India Ratings and Research in a report stated that the aggregate fiscal deficit of states is likely to be at 4.3 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021-22 compared to 4.6 per cent in 2020-21. The rating agency has revised the outlook on state finances to stable for FY22 from stable-to-negative. The benchmarks gave up all their gains in afternoon deals on account of a selling in private bank and IT stocks. However, losses remained capped as traders took some solace with S&P Global Ratings' statement that India is on track for an economic recovery in the fiscal year ending March 2022. It said in a report titled Cross-Sector Outlook: India's Escape From Covid that consistently good agriculture performance, a flattening of the Covid-19 infection curve and a pickup in government spending are all supporting the economy. Separately, the Department of Expenditure under the Ministry of Finance has released the 16th weekly instalment of Rs 5,000 crore to the States on Monday to meet the Goods and Services Tax (GST) compensation shortfall. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 49.96 points or 0.10% to 52,104.17, while the CNX Nifty was down by 1.25 points or 0.01% to 15,313.45.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday, after climbing to new record intraday highs early in the session, as some traders to cash in on the recent strength in the markets. However, the early strength on markets largely reflected recent upward momentum, which has propelled the major averages to new record highs despite a lack of major catalysts. Optimism about additional stimulus from Washington has helped prop up the markets as Democrats continue to move forward with President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion relief package. Recent signs indicating the coronavirus crisis is easing following a recent surge has also generated buying interest as countries around the world continue to ramp up vaccine rollouts. On the economic data front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report showing New York manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in months in February. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 12.1 in February from 3.5 in January, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Street had expected the index to rise to 6.0. With the much bigger than expected increase, the general business conditions index reached its highest level since hitting 17.0 last September.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday after oil wells and refineries in Texas were shut down due to cold. Texas, the biggest crude producing state in the United States, produces roughly 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and is home to 31 refineries. Worries about supply due to rising tensions in the Middle East following a drone attack by Yemen's Houthi group on Saudi Arabian airports also contributed to oil's advance. Crude oil futures for March gained $0.58 or 1 percent to settle at $60.05 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent crude rose $0.17 or 0.27 percent to settle at $63.47 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee pared its initial losses to close almost flat against the US dollar on Tuesday, amid a muted trend in the domestic equity market. Traders paid no heed towards the commerce ministry's data showing that growing for the second consecutive month, the country's exports rose 6.16 per cent year-on-year to $27.45 billion in January 2021 following healthy growth in pharma and engineering sectors. Trade deficit during the month narrowed to $14.54 billion from $15.3 billion in January 2020. It was $15.44 billion in December 2020. Imports in January 2021 rose 2 per cent to $42 billion. On the global front, the US dollar was mired at a three-week low on Tuesday as growing optimism about the outlook of the global economy in the coming months sent investors scurrying to purchase riskier currencies including the euro, crown and the British pound. Finally, the rupee ended at 72.69, 1 paise weaker from its previous close of 72.68 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyer in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5753.07 crore against gross selling of Rs 3834.35 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1449.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 825.16 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 60.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 44.09 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday as the expectation that US policymakers will stick with significant fiscal and monetary stimulus helped drive stocks higher while concerns over rising interest rates weighed on some sectors. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday following muted trend on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets ended flat with negative bias on Tuesday as losses in banking and IT stocks overpowered gains in the metal and pharma space. Today, the start of session is likely to be pessimistic tracking weakness in global markets. There will be some cautiousness as India registered 11,795 fresh Covid-19 cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Active cases in India stand at 137,866, while the caseload tally has risen to 10,937,106. The country continues to be second-most-affected globally, and ranks 17th among worst-hit nations by active cases. However, some respite may come later in the day with ICRA ratings report that after two consecutive quarters of contraction, India's GDP is set to revert to the growth territory in the October-December 2020 period compared to the year-ago period. It said private consumption and government spending will help the economy post a turnaround during the December quarter and the GDP will grow 0.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came out with the draft guidelines for allowing derivatives trading in the credit default swaps (CDS) in over-the-counter (OTC) markets and on recognised stock exchanges in the country. Traders may take note of report that India is poised to clear some new investment proposals from China in the coming weeks as frosty relations between the two neighbouring countries thawed amid an easing in border tensions. FMCG industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that the FMCG industry in India has recorded a value growth of 7.3 percent in October-December quarter helped by consumption-led recovery during the festive period and increase in sales from traditional as well as organised trade. There will be some reaction in NBFCs stocks with credit rating agency Crisil's report that stressed assets of non-banking financial services companies (NBFCs) are expected to reach Rs 1.5-1.8 lakh crore, or 6.0-7.5 percent of the asset under management (AUM) by the end of the financial year 2021.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

15,313.45

15,226.51

15,416.06

BSE Sensex

52,104.17

51,806.26

52,459.41

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

803.65

402.90

396.89

412.34

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

762.36

103.35

100.11

105.71

Tata Motors

659.43

329.00

325.04

335.44

Power Grid Corporation Of India

451.13

225.75

216.06

232.66

Tata Steel

336.61

697.65

674.44

714.74

 

  • Wipro has entered into a five-year strategic partnership with Telefonica Germany / O2, a leading provider of mobile telecommunications, broadband and landline in Germany.
  • Tata Motors' wholly owned subsidiary -- JLR is planning to become a net zero carbon business by 2039 for which its Jaguar brand will become an all-electric luxury vehicle marque from 2025. 
  • Titan Company's subsidiary -- CaratLane Trading has incorporated a Wholly Owned Subsidiary namely StudioC Inc. 
  • Coal India's overall expenditure declined by 3.3 per cent to Rs 54,241 crore in the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal.
News Analysis