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NSE Intra-day chart (15 February 2023)
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Market Commentary 16 February 2023
Benchmarks likely to get positive start on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks staged a smart recovery in late afternoon deals and ended with steady gains on Wednesday, as investors mostly resorted to selective buying. Markets made a negative start, tracking weak cues from the Asian peers, as a hotter-than-expected inflation in the US raised fears of more rate hikes. However, benchmarks soon wiped-out losses but remained volatile for the most part of the session, as traders were anxious with the data shared by the ministry of finance showing that the outstanding liabilities of 28 states are projected to rise 43 percent in the three years from March 2020 to March 2023. In all, the outstanding liabilities of all these states are forecasted to reach Rs 75 lakh crore by the end of the current financial year, up from Rs 52 lakh crore in March 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic had forced a nationwide lockdown in India. However, fag-end buying helped the markets to end higher. Traders got support with the provisional data available with NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,305.30 crore on February 14, 2023. Some support also came as India's foodgrain production is estimated at an all-time high of 323.55 million tonnes in the current crop year ending June, driven by the projection of a record output of rice, wheat and pulses. Traders took a note of Vivek Johri, CBIC Chairman's statement that the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) will use the data of electric meters and property tax to increase the base of goods and services tax (GST). Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 242.83 points or 0.40% to 61,275.09 and the CNX Nifty was up by 86.00 points or 0.48% to 18,015.85.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data offered evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department released a report showing a substantial increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of January. The report said retail sales spiked by 3.0 percent in January after tumbling by 1.1 percent in December. Street had expected retail sales to jump by 1.8 percent. Excluding a surge in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales still shot up by 2.3 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.9 percent in December. Ex-auto sales were expected to increase by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.1 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. However, gains remained capped investors worried about more interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve in the months ahead. On the sectoral front, Tobacco stocks showed a strong move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Tobacco Index up by 1.2 percent. Considerable strength also emerged among networking stocks, as reflected by the 1.1 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Networking Index. On the other hand, substantial weakness remained visible among gold stocks, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 2.5 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday as a report from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude oil inventories surged by much more than expected in the week ended February 10th. The report said crude oil inventories spiked by 16.3 million barrels last week compared to estimates for an increase of 1.2 million barrels. However, selling pressure waned as the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2023. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell 34 cents or 0.43 percent at $78.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery lost 27 cents or 0.32 percent at $85.38 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Wednesday. Traders got worried after India's exports dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion in January due to slowdown in global demand even as the trade deficit touched a 12-month low of $17.75 billion during the month. Imports in January too contracted by 3.63 per cent, the second consecutive month, to $50.66 billion. On the global front, sterling slumped against major peers on Wednesday, breaking a seven-day rally against the euro, after a bigger-than-expected drop in UK inflation in January raised expectations the Bank of England may end its interest rate hiking cycle soon. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.82 (Provisional), weaker by 4 paise from its previous close of 82.78 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment and net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8417.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 6775.09 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 683.39 crore against gross selling of Rs 1211.94 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 11.86 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as US retail sales jumped 3 per cent in January, biggest gain since 2021. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday as investors digested Japan's record trade deficit of $26 billion according to Refinitiv data that dates back to March 2006. Indian markets ended higher on Wednesday following gains in IT, oil and banking stocks amid mixed global trends. Today, domestic indices are likely to open higher amid positive global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the effort of the government over the years has been to increase public expenditure with a view to promote growth. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 432.15 crore on February 15, NSE's provisional data showed. Some support will come as India's trade deficit in January hit its lowest in a year at $17.75 billion, as both merchandise exports and imports contracted for the second consecutive month amid tepid external demand and a sharp decline in gold imports. Merchandise exports dropped 6.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $32.91 billion last month, while Imports contracted 3.6 per cent YoY to $50.66 billion. However, there may be some cautiousness as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that Indian exporters may be hit by a likely slowdown in advanced economies and a constant dialogue with the government is likely to help them overcome the challenges. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the government will take a call next month on increasing the sugar export quota from the present 60 lakh tonnes for the current marketing year after assessing the domestic production. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as industry body SEA said India's edible oil imports rose 33 per cent in January to 16.61 lakh tonnes, the highest since September 2021, driven by higher imports of sunflower oil. Besides, Nestle India, and Schaeffler India will report the October-December quarter (Q3FY23) results on later today.

 

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,015.85

17,901.74

18,082.04

BSE Sensex

61,275.09

60,899.43

61,501.66

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

355.44

110.35

109.24

111.04

Reliance Industries

154.62

2435.05

2392.96

2457.16

State Bank of India

127.97

542.80

538.19

546.04

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

126.31

147.30

145.40

149.30

ITC

122.09

382.10

379.49

383.79

 

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank's arm -- Kotak Investment Advisors has raised $590 million (about Rs 4,885 crore) for investments in the data centres in the country. 
  • ONGC has reported rise of 0.25% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 11665.24 crore for Q3FY23 as compared to Rs 11636.67 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in the North-East cities of Kohima, Dimapur, Aizawl, Gangtok, Silchar, Dibrugarh & Tinsukia. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has partnered with SMAS Auto Leasing India to enhance its vehicles subscription programme.
News Analysis