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NSE Intra-day chart (14 March 2023)
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Market Commentary 15 March 2023
Benchmarks likely to get optimistic start on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, due to losses in IT, Utilities and TECK stocks. After making a cautious start, key gauges traded marginally higher as traders took support with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country's goods and services exports are marching ahead to cross $750 billion in the current financial year and talks for expanding rupee trade with certain countries are at an advanced stage. However, markets soon slipped into red as traders got cautious after India's CPI inflation in February remained above RBI's tolerance range indicating more rate hikes in future. India's consumer price inflation (CPI)-based inflation eased marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, compared to 6.52 per cent in January. Besides, as per a private report, the Reserve Bank is likely to hike benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points in its bi-monthly policy next month to bring down inflation within the central bank's comfort zone. Some concern also came as the National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,546.86 crore on March 13. But, markets tried to recoup losses in the middle amid easing wholesale inflation. India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) declined further to 3.85% for the month of February 2023 against 4.73% recorded in January 2023, on account of fall in prices of crude petroleum & natural gas, non-food articles, food products, minerals, computer, electronic & optical products, chemicals & chemical products, electrical equipment and motor vehicles, trailers & semitrailers. The wholesale inflation was 4.95% in December 2022. Some relief came with the latest FICCI Manufacturing Survey report stating that with growth expected to continue for the Indian manufacturing sector in Jan-March 2022-23, there are signs that cost pressure witnessed in the last many months seems to be softening a bit for the sector. Though, markets failed to hold recovery and once again fell sharply in late afternoon deals amid continued global uncertainty. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 337.66 points or 0.58% to 57,900.19 and the CNX Nifty was down by 111.00 points or 0.65% to 17,043.30.

 

The US markets ended higher, with Nasdaq settling over two percent higher, as the assurance from the regulators that there won't be a relapse of the financial crisis from 15 years ago helped lift sentiment. Data showing a drop in U.S. consumer prices in the month of February contributed significantly to the positive mood in the market. The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent in February after climbing by 0.5 percent in January. The advance by the index matched expectations. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, increased by 0.5 percent in February after rising by 0.4 percent in the previous month. Street had expected core prices to rise by 0.4 percent. The report also showed the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 6.0 percent in February from 6.4 percent in January. The year-over-year growth, which was in line with street estimates, marked the smallest 12-month increase since September 2021. The annual rate of growth by core consumer prices edged down to 5.5 percent in February from 5.6 percent in January. The slowdown in year-over-year price growth may help offset recent concerns about the outlook for interest rates ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. in stock specific developments, Meta Platforms shares surged more than 7 percent after the company said it would cut 10,000 jobs in mass layoffs. Shares of First Republic Bank soared nearly 27 percent, bouncing back after plunging by about 60 percent in the previous session. Bancorp climbed about 2.7 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Tuesday, magnifying the previous day's slide, amid concerns a fresh financial crisis following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank could significantly hurt oil demand. Despite the Biden administration's assurance that there won't be a relapse of the financial crisis from 15 years ago, worries of a wider contagion persist, hurting oil prices. Meanwhile, Consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with street estimates in the month of February, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent in February after climbing by 0.5 percent in January. The advance by the index matched expectations. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery fell $3.47 or 4.7 percent to $71.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery dropped $3.32 or 4.1 percent to $77.45 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Rupee ended lower against the US dollar on Tuesday amid negative sentiment in the domestic equity markets and unabated foreign fund outflows. Traders got cautious after India's CPI inflation in February remained above RBI's tolerance range indicating more rate hikes in future. India's consumer price inflation (CPI)-based inflation eased marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, compared to 6.52 per cent in January. Markets participants overlooked reports that India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) declined further to 3.85% for the month of February 2023 against 4.73% recorded in January 2023. On the global front, dollar rose in somewhat calmer trading on Tuesday, after tumbling on Monday following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), as investors waited for the release of U.S. consumer inflation data later in the day. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.49 (Provisional), depreciate by 26 paise from its previous close of 82.23 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9561.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 6552.83 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 394.93 crore against gross selling of Rs 78.71 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.53 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as largely on-target inflation data and easing jitters over contagion in the banking sector cooled expectations regarding the size of the rate hike at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Asian markets are trading in green on Wednesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets fell for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, though markets ended well off their day's lows, taking cues from gains in European equities. Today, markets are likely to turn bullish with positive start as global sentiments improve on in-line US inflation report. Traders will be getting encouragement as Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said the government is taking steps to make India a $5 trillion economy earlier than the International Monetary Fund's forecast year of 2026-27. The IMF's World Economic Outlook earlier said the size of the Indian economy will increase from $3.2 trillion in 2021-22 to $3.5 trillion in 2022-23 and cross $5 trillion in 2026-27. Some support will come as Anurag Jain, the secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), said that inclusion and equity are important for India to transform into a developed nation, with technology aiding this growth. Traders may take note of India's G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant's statement that with a third of the global economy expected to reel from recession in 2023, it is imperative upon the G20 nations to push for inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth in their deliberations. However, there may be some cautiousness amid foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,086.96 crore on March 14, the National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed. There will be some buzz in tyre industry stocks as Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association Chairman Satish Sharma said export of tyres from India is expected to rise by 15 per cent in the ongoing fiscal. Banking stocks will be in focus with report that a structural change in the liquidity landscape brought about by much lower surplus cash and booming credit growth has resulted in a surge in banks' reliance on short-term funding avenues in the current financial year. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows that in the current financial year, so far, bank borrowings have averaged Rs 4.2 trillion, against Rs 2.6 trillion in the previous financial year. Meanwhile, the government said the country has exported wheat worth Rs 11,728.36 crore during the April-January period of this fiscal year.

 

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,043.30

16,945.39

17,182.94

BSE Sensex

57,900.19

57,583.90

58,353.72

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

485.85

106.55

105.65

108.00

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

181.47

653.50

633.21

679.16

HDFC Bank

165.93

1568.00

1557.00

1581.30

ICICI Bank

154.57

832.50

822.35

838.55

State Bank of India

147.51

526.00

519.74

532.54

 

  • Tata Motors' wholly owned subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover is partnering with Tata Technologies to accelerate its digital transformation. 
  • Coal India is eyeing to supply 156 million tonnes of coal to power sector during April-June 2023 quarter amid concerns over spike in coal demand. 
  • TCS has launched its 5G-enabled solution, TCS Cognitive Plant Operations Adviser for the Microsoft Azure Private Mobile Edge Computing platform. 
  • CheQ has partnered with Axis Bank, India's third largest private sector bank to make the credit card bill payment experience extra rewarding for its users.
News Analysis