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NSE Intra-day chart (14 February 2023)
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Market Commentary 15 February 2023
Markets likely to get negative start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks snapped their two-day losing run to end nearly a per cent higher on Tuesday, as supportive global cues and healthy buying in heavyweights lifted sentiment. Equity benchmarks made a positive start and traded in fine fettle in early deals as the data with the BSE showing that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net buyers on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,322.39 crore. Traders got encouragement after India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased further to 4.73% for the month of January 2023 against 4.95% recorded in December 2022. Decline in the rate of inflation in January is primarily contributed by mineral oils, chemicals & chemical products, textiles, crude petroleum & natural gas, textiles, and food products. The wholesale inflation was 5.85% in November 2022.  Sliding crude oil prices in the international markets also bolstered sentiment. Sentiments remained up-beat in late afternoon deals, even as the government data showing that India's retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, mainly on account of a spike in food prices. The inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.72 per cent in December and 6.01 per cent in January 2022. Meanwhile, Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal has urged member countries of the IPEF group to focus on early deliverables which can benefit all the nations. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was launched by the US and other partner countries of the Indo-Pacific region on May 23 last year in Tokyo. The 14 partner countries represent 40 per cent of global GDP and 28 per cent of global goods and services trade. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 600.42 points or 0.99% to 61,032.26 and the CNX Nifty was up by 158.95 points or 0.89% to 17,929.85.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, following the release of a Labor Department report showing U.S. consumer prices increased in line with street estimates in the month of January. The report said the consumer price index climbed by 0.5 percent in January following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in December. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.1 percent dip originally reported for the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent in January, matching a revised increase in December as well as street estimates. The Labor Department also said the annual rate of growth in consumer prices slowed to 6.4 percent in January from 6.5 percent in December. While the year-over-year price growth reflected the smallest increase since October 2021, street had expected the pace of annual growth to slow to 6.2 percent. The annual rate of core consumer price growth slowed to 5.6 percent in January from 5.7 percent in December. The pace of growth was expected to slow to 5.5 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday after the United States said it would release more crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), lifting some supply concerns from the market. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday it would sell 26 million barrels of oil from the SPR, which is already at its lowest level since 1983, a release that had been mandated by Congress in previous years. Both benchmarks traded more than $2 lower earlier in the session, however pared some losses after data showed the U.S. consumer price index accelerated at its slowest annual pace since late 2021, raising the likelihood of less aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell 87 cents or 1.1 percent at $79.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery dropped 96 cents or 1.1 percent at $85.65 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Rupee ended lower against the US dollar on Tuesday as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the US inflation data. Besides, India's retail inflation breached the RBI's comfort zone and rose to a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, mainly on account of a spike in food prices. The inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.72 per cent in December and 6.01 per cent in January 2022. Traders ignored report that India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) eased further to 4.73% for the month of January 2023 against 4.95% recorded in December 2022. On the global front, dollar fell on Tuesday ahead of a keenly anticipated inflation report, while the yen strengthened as surprise pick Kazuo Ueda was nominated as the Bank of Japan's next governor. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.82 (Provisional), depreciate by 12 paise from its previous close of 82.70 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7413.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 5916.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 872.48 crore against gross selling of Rs 119.75 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.28 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.23 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday after the release of US inflation data that came in hotter-than-expected. Asian markets are trading lower on Wednesday following a largely lower close on Wall Street. Indian markets ended higher on Tuesday propelled by market heavyweight RIL, ITC, banking and IT shares amid positive global cues. Today, markets are likely to get negative start tracking weakness in the global peers. Trading sentiments continue to remain subdued amid concerns over rising inflation in the country. However, foreign fund inflows likely to support domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,305.30 crore on February 14, according to the provisional data available with NSE. Some support will come as India's foodgrain production is estimated at an all-time high of 323.55 million tonnes in the current crop year ending June, driven by the projection of a record output of rice, wheat and pulses. Traders may take note of Vivek Johri, CBIC Chairman's statement that the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) will use the data of electric meters and property tax to increase the base of goods and services tax (GST). Meanwhile, amid stakeholders facing glitches in submitting forms under the companies law through the MCA21 portal, Union minister Nirmala Sitharaman asked the corporate affairs ministry to form a special team to address public grievances on a priority basis. Banking stocks will be in focus with a private report stating that public-sector banks (PSBs) in Q3FY23 wrote off bad loans worth Rs 29,000 crore, up from Rs 23,000 crore in the same quarter a year ago, as part of a clean-up exercise. There will be some buzz in the auto stocks with rating agency Icra's report that the commercial vehicle industry volume is expected to grow in the range of 7-10 per cent in the next financial year. It noted that the volume growth would be on account of government infrastructure spending, replacement demand, back-to-school and office scenarios and e-commerce expansion.

 

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,929.85

17,835.09

17,989.59

BSE Sensex

61,032.26

60,687.42

61,239.91

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

311.64

109.30

108.40

110.05

ITC

291.25

385.95

377.25

391.15

State Bank of India

185.60

541.00

532.96

546.81

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone

179.76

564.00

541.11

584.06

Adani Enterprises

145.79

1750.00

1611.24

1888.89

 

  • HDFC Bank has executed an agreement to sell 1,65,731 Equity Shares, being the 9.95% equity stake held by the Bank in STGPL for a total sale consideration of Rs 9.94 crore.  
  • Reliance Industries is seeking a minimum $12.75 per million British thermal unit for coal bed methane from a block in Shahdol district of Madhya Pradesh. 
  • ICICI Bank has signed MoU with BNP Paribas to cater to the banking requirements of European corporates operating in India and Indian companies in the European Union.
  • Adani Enterprises has reported many fold jump in its consolidated net profit at Rs 739.88 crore for Q3FY23 as compared to Rs 1.80 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
News Analysis