In the highly volatile session,
Indian equity benchmarks erased losses in the last few minutes of the session
and ended flat with a positive bias on Wednesday, amid fag-end buying ahead of
Fed outcome. After making a cautious start, key gauges witnessed a sharp fall
as traders got anxious with data showing that India's retail inflation based on
the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a three-month high of 5.55 per cent in
November 2023 on firming food prices, including vegetables and cereals. Though
it remains within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) comfort zone of less than
6 per cent. Some concern came with former RBI Governor Raghuram G Ranjan's
statement that Indian economy, dubbed the fastest growing major economy in the
world, is faced with the single most important pressure point of job creation.
Some pessimism also came amid a private report stating that India's inflation
quickened for the first time in four months, while manufacturing production
surged more than forecast, giving the central bank reason to keep interest
rates higher for longer. However, markets recovered sharply in second half to
end with marginal gains as traders found some solace with better-than-expected
growth in the October Industrial Production data. India's industrial production
hit a 16-month high in October, aided by a favourable base effect. Overnight
sharp fall in crude oil prices also helped the markets. Some support also came
with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitahraman's statement that the economy is moving
in the right direction, and India has become the fastest-growing major economy
in the world. Some optimism also came with Services Export Promotion Council
(SEPC) stating that the country's services exports have touched $192 billion so
far this fiscal and are expected to reach $400 billion by the end of 2023-24.
Sectors like tourism, hospitality, and medical value tourism which suffered due
to COVID-19 are now showing revival signs. In addition to this, sectors like
legal, auditing, higher education, accounting, and logistics are showing good
growth. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 33.57 points or 0.05% to 69,584.60 and the
CNX Nifty was up by 19.95 points or 0.10% to 20,926.35.
The US markets ended sharply
higher on Wednesday after the Fed announced its widely expected decision to leave
interest rates unchanged while also confirming plans to pivot to cutting rates
next year. In support of its dual goals of maximum employment and inflation at
the rate of 2 percent over the longer run, the Fed said it decided to maintain
the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The
accompanying statement said the decision came as economic growth has slowed
from its strong pace in the third quarter, while inflation has eased over the
past year. The projections provided by the Fed also suggest the central bank
will begin cutting rates next year, with the median forecast indicating rates
will be lowered to 4.6 percent by the end of 2024. The median forecast points
to rates in a range of 4.50 to 4.75 percent, hinting the Fed plans to cut rates
by 25 basis points three times next year. On the sectoral front, Gold stocks
showed a substantial move back to the upside following recent weakness, resulting
in a 6.4 percent spike by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The rally by gold
stocks comes as the price of the precious metal soared in electronic trading on
the heels of the Fed announcement. Considerable strength was also visible among
biotechnology stocks, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index surging by 4.3
percent to its best closing level in over three months. Banking, commercial
real estate and utilities stocks also showed particularly strong moves to the
upside following the Fed announcement.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Wednesday after data showed a bigger than expected drop in U.S. crude
inventories in the week ended December 8. Data released by Energy Information
Administration (EIA) showed crude oil inventories in the U.S. dropped by 4.3
million barrels last week, as against an expected declined of about 0.7 million
barrels. Meanwhile, Gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels,
while distillate fuel stockpiles increased by 1.5 million barrels. Benchmark
crude oil futures for January delivery rose $0.86 or about 1.3 percent to
settle at $69.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for
February delivery surged $1.02 or about 1.39 percent to settle at $74.26 a
barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian Rupee ended lower against
the US dollar on Wednesday amid a strong American currency overseas. Traders
were worried as India's retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) rose to a three-month high of 5.55 per cent in November 2023 on firming
food prices, including vegetables and cereals. Traders overlooked report that
India's industrial production growth jumped to a 16-month high of 11.7 per cent
in October 2023 compared to the same month of the previous year. On the global
front, dollar ticked up slightly on Wednesday as traders prepared for the
conclusion of a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could offer some insight
into when the U.S. central bank will begin lowering interest rates. Finally,
the rupee ended at 83.42 (Provisional), weaker by 5 paise from its previous
close of 83.37 on Tuesday.
The FIIs as per Wednesday's data
were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 17039.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 14451.29 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1495.34 crore with
gross sales of Rs 873.52 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 68.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 43.55 crore.
The US markets ended higher on
Wednesday, after Fed signals three rate cuts in 2024. Asian markets are trading
mostly in green on Thursday joining a global rally in stocks and bonds on signs
the Federal Reserve will cut rates next year, reigniting a bullish pulse across
markets. Indian markets recovered from day's losses and ended slightly higher
on Wednesday on account of value buying in the second half of the session.
Today, markets are likely to get gap-up opening following a global equity rally
after a clear signal to an end to the rate hiking cycle, the US Fed stayed put
on rates last night and penciled in at least 3 rate cuts next year.
Domestically, investors will be eyeing inflation numbers based on wholesale
price index (WPI) to be out later in the day for more directional cues. Foreign
fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock
Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought
shares worth Rs 4,711 crore on December 13. Sentiments will get a boost as Asia
Development Bank (ADB) said India's economy would grow 6.7 per cent in
Financial Year 2023-24 (FY24), raising the estimate from 6.3 per cent it made
in September. The lender revised its estimate based on India's
higher-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth, of 7.6 per cent, in
the second quarter of FY24. Some support will come as Commerce and Industry
Minister Piyush Goyal said foreign investors should explore business
opportunities in India as it provides a huge domestic market and
investment-friendly environment. He added the availability of skilled manpower,
equal treatment to all investors, and the aspirational young population are
also some of the key reasons for investing in India. Meanwhile, the government
has introduced a bill in Parliament, which seeks to give immediate effect to
the changes in customs and excise duties announced in the Budget. Finance
Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while introducing the Provisional Collection of
Taxes Bill, 2023, in the Lok Sabha said the provisions are curbing speculative
activities following changes in customs and excise duties in the Budget.
Banking stocks will be in focus as global rating agency Standard & Poor's
(S&P) said the credit-deposit ratio of the Indian banks may come under
pressure on the prospects of continued lag of deposit growth vis-a-vis the pace
of credit expansion. The trailing of deposit growth and competition for funds
may dent the net interest margins to 2.9 per cent in 2025 from 3.0 per cent in
FY24.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
20,926.35
|
20,813.90
|
20,994.40
|
BSE
Sensex
|
69,584.60
|
69,237.47
|
69,794.84
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Power
Grid
|
268.78
|
236.70
|
232.36
|
239.26
|
NTPC
|
236.30
|
294.10
|
287.44
|
297.84
|
Tata
Steel
|
227.68
|
131.35
|
129.84
|
132.19
|
ICICI
Bank
|
158.87
|
1013.30
|
1008.10
|
1019.60
|
HDFC
Bank
|
146.73
|
1633.80
|
1620.60
|
1641.50
|
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