Indian equity benchmarks ended
lower for the second consecutive session on Friday as investors avoided taking
any long position ahead of India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data to
be out later in the day. After a cautious start, the benchmark indices extended
the losses as the day progressed, as traders got anxious with private report
stating that India's headline retail inflation is expected to have crashed past
the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6 percent tolerance band
in July on its way to a nine-month high due to a surge in vegetable prices.
Sentiments remained dampened as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its July
2023 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS) stated that after
persistent recovery for almost two years, consumer confidence for current
period, as reflected in the current situation index (CSI), stood a shade lower
than that witnessed in the previous survey round; improvement in respondents'
sentiment on income and spending was offset by somewhat higher pessimism on
general economic and employment situation. Markets recovered a bit in the
afternoon session but failed to build on it and finished the session near the
day's lows. Traders took a note of report stating that tagging a genuine
exporter as risky will hurt India's exports and an inter-ministerial committee
comprising representatives from finance and commerce ministries is required to
consider all aspects before branding them under this category. Traders
overlooked a finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that while the
global economy is struggling, India is uniquely positioned to be optimistic and
positive about its future growth. The minister highlighted that India is the
fastest-growing economy despite disruptions due to the pandemic. Meanwhile,
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has said the move to impose a 10 per cent
incremental cash reserve ratio for a limited period will help suck out Rs 1
lakh crore of excess liquidity from the system. The move, announced along with
the bi-monthly policy review, was the best option under the current
circumstances and there is enough liquidity in the system for the banks to
continue their lending operations. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 365.53 points
or 0.56% to 65,322.65 and the CNX Nifty was down by 114.80 points or 0.59% to
19,428.30.
The US markets ended mostly lower
on Friday following the release of a Labor Department report showing producer
prices climbed by slightly more than expected in the month of July. The Labor
Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.3 percent
in July following a revised unchanged reading in June. Street had expected
producer prices to inch up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick
originally reported for the previous month. The report also showed the annual
rate of producer price growth reaccelerated to 0.8 percent in July after
slowing to just 0.2 percent in June. The rate of growth was expected to
accelerate to 0.7 percent. On the sectoral front, semiconductor stocks showed a
significant move to the downside on the day, dragging the Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index down by 2.3 percent to its lowest closing level in well
over a month. Considerable weakness was also visible among airline stocks, with
the NYSE Arca Airline Index tumbling by 2.0 percent to a two-month closing low.
Computer hardware stocks also saw notable weakness, resulting in a 1.3 percent
drop by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index. However, oil stocks moved higher
amid a rebound by the price of crude oil, driving the NYSE Arca Oil Index up by
1.4 percent. Gold stocks also turned in a strong performance despite a modest
decrease by the price of the precious metal, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index
climbing by 1.1 percent.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Friday as investors focused on tightening supplies as a result of previously
announced cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Oil prices got support after a
report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast strong demand for
oil and tightening supplies in the market. In a report, the IEA said global oil
demand hit a record 103 million barrels per day in June and added that demand
could scale another peak this month. The IEA also said output cuts from Russia
and Saudi Arabia could result in a sharp decline in inventories over the rest
of this year and lift oil prices even higher. Benchmark crude oil futures for
September delivery rose $0.37 or about 0.50 percent to settle at $83.19 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery
gained $0.41 or 0.5 percent to settle at $86.81 a barrel on London's
Intercontinental Exchange.
Rupee settled lower against
dollar on Friday amid weak sentiment in the equity markets and a strong dollar
against major rivals overseas. Investors were worried with private report
stating that India's headline retail inflation is expected to have crashed past
the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6 percent tolerance band
in July on its way to a nine-month high due to a surge in vegetable prices.
Traders took a note of report that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised the cash
reserve ratio in an incremental 10 per cent in proportion to banks' liquidity.
On the global front, the dollar headed for a fourth weekly gain on Friday even
after data showed U.S. inflation did not pick up as strongly as expected in
July, reinforcing the existing view among investors that the Federal Reserve is
unlikely to raise rates much more. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.82
(Provisional), weaker by 16 paise from its previous close of 82.66 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 11571.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 9523.33 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 403.00 crore with gross
sales of Rs 143.90 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was
of Rs 21.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 32.79 crore.
The US markets ended mostly lower
on Friday after data showed producer prices rose more than expected in July
while consumer confidence dropped for the first time in 14 months, raising much
uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Asian markets
are trading in red on Monday as investors look toward key data from Japan and
China this week. Indian markets ended lower on Friday as initial optimism over
tame U.S. CPI data fizzled out, following hawkish comments from a Federal
Reserve official. Today, start of holiday shortened week is likely to be
pessimistic tracking weakness in global peers. Investors likely to remain on
sidelines ahead of the key inflation data (Retail inflation and Wholesale
inflation) later today and a trading holiday on Tuesday on account of India's
Independence Day. Slowdown in India's industrial growth likely to weigh on
sentiment. The data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed
growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) cooled to a three-month low
of 3.7 per cent in June from 5.2 per cent in May, on the back of a high base effect
and slowdown in manufacturing output. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent
sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed
foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,073.28 crore on
August 11. Traders will be concerned as the National Institute of Public
Finance and Policy (NIPFP) in a mid-year macroeconomic review said that India's
economic growth is expected to slow down to 6 per cent in this financial year
(FY24) from 7.2 per cent in FY23 due to headwinds in the global economy. Also,
latest data by the Reserve Bank of India showed India's foreign exchange
reserve declined by $2.4 billion to $601 billion in the week ended July 4.
Traders may take note of report that the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) is set
to implement two production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, namely the PLI
scheme for automobile and auto components (PLI Auto), and the PLI scheme for
advanced chemistry cell (ACC) (PLI ACC). Besides, sowing of kharif crops is
over in almost 90 per cent of the normal area during the week ended August 11,
with acreage of rice being higher by almost 4.92 per cent as compared to the
same period last year. Meanwhile, Q1FY24 results of Aster DM Healthcare, Easy
Trip Planners, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Vodafone Idea, ITC, Senco Gold, and
SpiceJet will be on investors' radar.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
19,428.30
|
19,374.79
|
19,519.79
|
BSE
Sensex
|
65,322.65
|
65,155.58
|
65,608.77
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata Steel
|
263.37
|
120.55
|
119.34
|
121.59
|
State Bank of India
|
182.21
|
574.50
|
571.34
|
578.34
|
Power Grid
|
179.00
|
244.25
|
242.61
|
246.06
|
ICICI Bank
|
171.62
|
954.35
|
948.40
|
961.90
|
HDFC Bank
|
141.13
|
1620.90
|
1611.94
|
1634.14
|
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