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NSE Intra-day chart (12 October 2021)
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Market Commentary 13 October 2021
Benchmarks likely to make flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues


Indian equity benchmarks recovered the day's losses to end a choppy session at record closing levels for second straight session on Tuesday, led by Consumer Durables, Consumer Discretionary, FMCG and Metal stocks. For most part of the day, benchmarks traded on a subdued note, as traders remained cautious after the World Bank said that the debt burden of the world's low-income countries rose 12% to a record $860 billion in 2020 as countries responded to the COVID-19 crisis with massive fiscal, monetary, and financial stimulus packages. Some pessimism also came as data complied by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed led by a sharp 249 percentage point rise in rural joblessness rate, India's unemployment rate shot up to 8.86% for the week ended October 10 compared with 7.56% a week earlier. Traders also took a note of private report stated that the Reserve Bank is likely to change the stance of its monetary policy and hike rates from the first quarter of 2022. It said the central bank will start with liquidity normalization moves this month, narrowing the difference between the rate at which it funds the system and at which it absorbs excess liquidity in December. Investors also awaited the latest batch of earnings as well as industrial output and CPI inflation figures for directional cues. However, late hour buying lifted the benchmarks to close at record highs. Traders also found some support with industry body PHDCCI stating that the economy is poised to achieve 10.25 per cent GDP growth in FY 2021-22 on the back of effective government policies, Reserve Bank's accommodative policy stance and improved business sentiments. Some optimism also came with Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review stating that strategic reforms and the rapid vaccination drive have placed the country on the path to swift recovery by enabling the economy to navigate the ravaging waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also said sustained and robust growth in agriculture, a sharp rebound in manufacturing and industry, resumption of services activity, and buoyant revenues suggest that the economy is progressing well. Besides, the Finance Ministry has released Rs 9,871 crore of revenue deficit grant to 17 states. With the release of this installment, a total amount of Rs 69,097.00 crore has been released to eligible states as Post Devolution Revenue Deficit Grant (PDRD) in the current financial year.  Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 148.53 points or 0.25% to 60,284.31 and the CNX Nifty was up by 46.00 points or 0.26% to 17,991.95.


The US markets ended lower for a third consecutive session on Tuesday ahead of a key inflation reading and a kick-off to third-quarter earnings season. The consumer price index for September is slated to be announced Wednesday. Street expects prices for an array of consumer goods to jump 0.3% in September from the month prior and 5.3% year over year. Weakness on markets also came as traders expressed some uncertainty about the outlook for the markets following the volatility seen throughout early October. Earnings reports were also on traders' minds, with financial giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM) due to report its third quarter results before the start of trading on Wednesday. Further, sentiments were also weak as the Labor Department released a report showing job openings dropped to 10.4 million in August from an upwardly revised 11.1 million in July. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its global growth forecast, citing supply chain challenges and persistent Covid spread. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the global lender retained its 4.9 percent global growth projection for next year, while it lowered the forecast for this year to 5.9 percent from 6.0 percent predicted in July. The IMF attributed the downward revision for this year to a downgrade for advanced economies, partly due to supply disruptions, and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics.


Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Tuesday amid speculation the fuel market could get tighter this winter. Traders took note of private report that oil prices may hit $90 a barrel at times this winter as gas-to-oil switching drives stockpiles lower. However, Brent crude settled lower after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its global economic growth forecast. The IMF said the global economy is losing momentum. It now sees global growth of 5.9% this year, down one-tenth of a percentage point from July. It also sees growth slowing to 4.9% next year. Benchmark Crude oil futures for November delivery rose $0.12 or about 0.2 percent to settle at $80.64 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for December delivery fell $0.23 or 0.3 percent to settle at $83.42 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee depreciated considerably against dollar on Tuesday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders were worried as the World Bank said that the debt burden of the world's low-income countries rose 12% to a record $860 billion in 2020 as countries responded to the COVID-19 crisis with massive fiscal, monetary, and financial stimulus packages. Some concerns also came amid private report stating that the Reserve Bank is likely to change the stance of its monetary policy and hike rates from the first quarter of 2022. On the global front, sterling eased from a two-week high against the dollar on Tuesday as UK jobs data came in largely in line with forecasts, keeping expectations for future rate rises from the Bank of England intact. Finally, the rupee ended 75.52, weaker by 16 paise from its previous close of 75.36 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net seller in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14178.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 14503.37 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 265.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 926.01 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.79 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as investors grew more jittery in the run up to third-quarter earnings. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday following weakness on Wall Street. Indian markets closed higher for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday after yet another day of volatile trade, supported by PSU bank, metal, FMCG and auto names. Today, the start of session is likely to be flat-to-positive following mixed trends in the global markets. Investors may react positively to macro-economic data released yesterday after market hours. The government data showed India's retail inflation eased again in September, falling to a five-month low, thanks to a favourable comparison with last year and moderating food prices that offset a surge in the cost of crude oil and fuel. The government data also showed that the Index of Industrial Production has risen 11.9% year-on-year for the month of August as against 11.5% in July. As per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector's output surged 9.7% in August 2021. Traders will be taking encouragement as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its projection for India's economic growth in the current financial year at 9.5 per cent, even as it has moderately scaled down its forecast for the world economy during 2021 by 10 basis points to 5.9 per cent in view of worsening Covid dynamics and supply disruptions. Meanwhile, The Centre has asked thermal power generators to import coal for at least 10 per cent blending, citing shortage of domestic coal supply. This is a sharp reversal of its earlier directive of using domestic coal. Telecom stocks will be in limelight as in line with its bold reform agenda for telecom, the government notified that for future spectrum auctions, the need for submission of financial bank guarantee (FBG) to securitise annual spectrum instalment has been done away with. There will be some buzz in the fertilizer industry stocks as the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved nutrient-based subsidy rates for phosphatic & potassic fertilisers for FY22. Net subsidy for the rabi season to be at Rs 28,665 crore. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as Icra's report stated that Sugar companies' revenue is likely to grow by 5-7 per cent in 2021-22, following firm domestic and global prices and expected growth in both sugar exports and ethanol volumes. There will be some reaction in NBFCs stocks as Crisil stated that Assets under management of gold loan-focussed Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) are likely to grow 18-20 per cent to Rs 1.3 lakh crore this fiscal on higher demand for such loans. There will be lots of earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action, mainly Infosys and Wipro.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • Tata Motors has reported 24 percent increase in group global wholesales, including that of JLR, to 2,51,689 units in September quarter of FY22 over the year-ago period. 
  • Coal India's subsidiary -- Mahanadi Coalfields has provided 76.6% coal to power producers, while 20.4 percent to the non-power consumers during the month of October.  
  • HCL Technologies has expanded its strategic partnership with Google Cloud to jointly launch healthcare and life sciences solutions for customers. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T Construction has secured various orders in India for its businesses.
News Analysis