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NSE Intra-day chart (12 September 2023)
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Market Commentary 13 September 2023
Benchmarks to open in green on positive macroeconomic data

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended flat in a highly volatile session on Tuesday as traders remained on sidelined ahead of the India's August consumer inflation and July Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, which will be released after market hours. Markets made a gap-up start as provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth Rs 1,473.09 crore on September 11. Some support also came with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country and Saudi Arabia can look at doubling bilateral trade to $100 billion in the coming years from about $52 billion at present. He said the two countries can also look at a more balanced trade. However, markets soon came under pressure and witnessed high volatility till the end of trading session amid a private report stating that foreign institutional investors have sold around $800 million in local equities in the past four sessions even as the benchmark Nifty 50 index hit a record 20,000 mark for the first time. Traders paid no heed towards Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India and the UK have expressed their commitment to an early conclusion of the free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries. She said there is definitely some discussion on the FTA, especially the investment aspects, which comes under the finance ministry, and the intention on both the sides to expedite the discussion so that some quick agreement could lead to finally signing. Meanwhile, Secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) Rajesh Kumar Singh has said that the government is looking at further easing foreign direct investment (FDI) norms in the space sector to attract overseas players. He said there is tremendous scope for collaboration such as in artificial intelligence, robotics, cyber security, automation and space, where we are looking to further liberalise our foreign direct investment norms to bring in private sector and foreign investment in our space sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 94.05 points or 0.14% to 67,221.13 and the CNX Nifty down by 3.15 points or 0.02% to 19,993.20.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday, with Nasdaq settling cut of over one percent as traders looked ahead to the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation on Wednesday. Street currently expect the annual rate of consumer price growth to accelerate to 3.6 percent in August from 3.2 percent in July, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth is expected to slow to 4.4 percent from 4.7 percent. The inflation data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week. Further, some selling pressure was also generated in reaction to a sharp increase by the price of crude oil, with crude for October delivery surging $1.55 to $88.84 a barrel. The price of crude oil has reached its highest levels since last November amid worries about tight supplies, raising concerns about sticky inflation. On the sectoral front, software stocks saw substantial weakness amid the steep drop by Oracle, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index plunging by 2.4 percent after ending Monday's trading at its best closing level in over a month. Considerable weakness was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 1.9 percent slump by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. Computer hardware and networking stocks also saw notable weakness, while energy stocks moved sharply higher along with the price of crude oil.

 

Crude oil futures settled sharply higher on Tuesday after the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed the oil market is going to be a lot tighter than initially thought. OPEC now expects a 3.3 million barrels a day deficit over the next 3 months, which is one million more bpd of a deficit than some energy traders were anticipating. Further, worries about fresh disruption from powerful storms and floods in eastern Libya contributed as well to the rise in oil prices. Four major oil ports in Libya - Ras Lanuf, Zueitina, Brega and Es Sidra - were closed from Saturday evening for three days, due to flooding and a storm, which killed about 2,000 people. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery surged $1.55 or 1.8 percent to settle at $88.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery climbed $1.42 or 1.6 percent to settle at $92.06 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.  

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Tuesday amid fresh foreign fund inflows and expectations of better macroeconomic data. Traders got support with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the country and Saudi Arabia can look at doubling bilateral trade to $100 billion in the coming years from about $52 billion at present. He said the two countries can also look at a more balanced trade. Meanwhile, Secretary in the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) Rajesh Kumar Singh has said that the government is looking at further easing foreign direct investment (FDI) norms in the space sector to attract overseas players. On the global front, yen slipped on Tuesday after its biggest daily rise since mid-July the day before after comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible end to its negative interest rate policy reverberated throughout markets. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.95 (Provisional), higher by 8 paise from its previous close of 83.03 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11497.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 10031.06 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 359.00 crore with gross sales of Rs 1006.09 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 29.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 20.63 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as investors looked towards the release of the consumer price index for more insights on inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday following overnight losses on Wall Street. Indian markets ended a choppy session on a flat note Tuesday after the recent rally. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid positive macroeconomic data. India's retail inflation rate fell below the 7 per cent mark in August. Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation eased to 6.83 per cent in August, from a 15 month high of 7.44 per cent in July, on account of moderation in the rate of price increase for vegetables, clothing & footwear, housing and services. Separately, factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated to 5.7 per cent in July, from 3.7 per cent in June, driven by robust growth in mining (10.7 per cent), power (8 per cent), and manufacturing (4.6 per cent) sectors. Some support will come as the State Bank of India in its latest Ecowrap said that India created 52 million formal jobs in the last four years, 47% of which were first jobs, citing the payroll data of the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) and the National Pension Scheme (NPS). However, weakness in global markets coupled with a fresh spurt in crude oil prices may weigh on the sentiment. Also, foreign fund outflows may dent sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,047.19 crore on September 12. Meanwhile, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has officially inaugurated 90 infrastructure projects constructed by the Border Roads Organisation (BRO). According to the official release by the Ministry of Defence, these projects cumulatively exceeded Rs 2,900 crore. Metal stocks will be in focus as the US allowed imports of 336,000 metric tonne of steel and aluminium from India without paying additional duties that were imposed under a national security law by the Trump administration. There will be some reaction in banking stocks after the RBI directed banks to classify investments in three categories with effect from April 2024. Fair value through profit and loss (FVTPL) will be the new category, under which there will be held for trading (HFT) - over 5 per cent sale from HFT will need prior approval.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,993.20

19,901.79

20,097.49

BSE Sensex

67,221.13

66,933.18

67,524.10

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

380.65

128.90

127.31

131.81

Power Grid

298.26

191.90

186.95

200.55

NTPC

211.74

234.35

230.65

241.50

ICICI Bank

209.60

989.55

983.09

995.59

HDFC Bank

195.17

1636.00

1626.40

1644.25

 

  • ITC has entered into the dairy business in Jharkhand with the launch of various products under its Aashirvaad Svasti brand. 
  • Bajaj Finance is planning to enter microfinance, SME finance as also tractor and four-wheeler financing. 
  • Coal India has planned a capital investment of around Rs 24,750 crore in the next few years on 61 First Mile Connectivity projects. 
  • Infosys has entered into strategic multi-year collaboration with STARK Group to power its digital transformation journey leveraging the recently launched Infosys Topaz.
News Analysis