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Market Commentary 12 June 2023
Benchmarks to get positive start ahead of IIP, CPI data

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second consecutive session on Friday as traders remained on sidelines ahead of macro-economic data -- industrial production and retail inflation -- to be release on June 12.  After making a cautious start, markets started drifting as the day progressed, as traders were cautious with private report stating that hiring activities have slowed down by 7 per cent in May compared to the same month last year mainly due to companies adopting cautious approach to cut expenses on the back of economic slowdown. Some concern also came amid a private report stating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may not cut the key lending rate before February unless inflation falls sharply or a global crisis unfolds. Markets failed to take solace with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that the RBI has decided to widen the scope of the framework for resolution of stressed assets, under which all the regulated entities including cooperative lenders will now be able to execute compromise settlements and technical write-offs to resolve non-performing assets (NPAs). Traders also overlooked Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India's (ASSOCHAM) report stating that the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged is on the expected lines, and added that the focus of the monetary policy is clearly on further taming inflation for a stable growth. Meanwhile, Additional Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) S C Aggarwal said that a robust and easy trade finance ecosystem is important for India to achieve the $2 trillion exports target by 2030. He stated Easy availability of affordable trade finance helps promote export competitiveness. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 223.01 points or 0.35% to 62,625.63 and the CNX Nifty was down by 71.15 points or 0.38% to 18,563.40.

 

The US markets ended marginally higher on Friday amid traders continued to look ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week. Thursday's report showing initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October 2021 last week added to the optimism about the Fed pausing its interest rates hikes, as the central bank has warned about the impact of labor market tightness. Key inflation reports are also likely to be in the spotlight next week, as the data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates. Meanwhile, the uptick by the Nasdaq was partly due to a jump by shares of Telsa (TSLA), with the electronic vehicle maker surging by 4.1 percent to an eight-month closing high. Tesla benefited from news General Motors (GM) announced a collaboration with the company to integrate the North American Charging Standard connector design into its electric vehicles beginning in 2025. On the sectoral front, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves, contributing to the relatively lackluster close by the broader markets. Tobacco stocks showed a significant move to the downside, however, with the NYSE Arca Tobacco Index falling by 1.7 percent. Notable weakness was also visible among gold stocks, as reflected by the 1.5 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The weakness in the sector came amid a modest decrease by the price of the precious metal. Natural gas and chemical stocks also saw some weakness on the day, while airline and software stocks moved to the upside.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Friday on concerns about the outlook for demand ahead of several key central bank meetings next week. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is likely to be in the spotlight, with the U.S. central bank expected to pause its recent interest rate increases. Besides, disappointing Chinese data added to doubts about demand growth. China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery fell $1.12 or about 1.6 percent to settle at $70.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for August delivery dropped $1.17 or 1.56 percent to settle at $74.79 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended higher on Friday amid foreign fund inflows. Traders got support after Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) stated that the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged is on the expected lines, and added that the focus of the monetary policy is clearly on further taming inflation for a stable growth. Traders took note of Additional Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) S C Aggarwal's statement that a robust and easy trade finance ecosystem is important for India to achieve the $2 trillion exports target by 2030. He stated Easy availability of affordable trade finance helps promote export competitiveness. On the global front, Russian rouble hit a more-than-two-month low past 83 against the dollar on Friday, showing limited reaction as the Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold, under pressure from geopolitical risks and foreign currency demand. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.47 (Provisional), stronger by 4 paise from its previous close of 82.51 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8292.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 7679.50 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1219.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 1496.25 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.63 crore against gross selling of Rs 31.06 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the Fed's latest policy announcement. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors awaited cues from the Fed and ECB meetings. Indian markets ended lower on Friday amidst concerns regarding monetary policy actions by key central banks worldwide. RBI's hawkish commentary also weighed on sentiment. Today, markets are likely to get positive start of new week as investors await the retail inflation print for May and April's IIP data, slated to be released later in the day. There are expectations that May consumer price inflation to have cooled down as rise in food prices continued to slow. Latest reports on progress of the monsoon may also influence markets. Some support will come as Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said that the government is on the same page with the Reserve Bank of India on the GDP growth forecast for the current financial year which is 6.5 per cent. Also, Country's largest commercial lender State Bank of India (SBI) said that domestic GDP growth is now on firm footing with urban demand showing good traction, while the lagging rural demand is a cause of concern. The bank has also revised GDP growth marginally upwards from 6.4 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the current financial year. Traders will be taking encouragement as the Reserve Bank said India's forex kitty jumped $5.929 billion to $595.067 billion for the week ended June 2. The reserves had dropped for two consecutive weeks and declined by $4.34 billion to $589.14 billion in the previous reporting week. However, foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold shares worth net Rs 308.97 crore on June 9, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Meanwhile, Moody's said the Indian economy is expected to clock a 6-6.3 per cent growth in June quarter, and flagged risks of fiscal slippage arising from weaker-than-expected government revenues in the current fiscal. Moody's growth estimate is lower than the 8 per cent projection for the first quarter made by the Reserve Bank last week.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,563.40

18,520.31

18,641.56

BSE Sensex

62,625.63

62,482.86

62,880.28

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

363.93

109.15

107.99

110.99

State Bank of India

188.70

578.80

574.00

586.35

Kotak Mahindra Bank

141.97

1874.00

1857.24

1894.24

Axis Bank

129.47

974.60

964.70

983.10

ICICI Bank

122.53

939.00

935.46

943.26

 

  • State Bank of India has received approval from Central Board of the Bank for raising funds in INR and / or any other convertible currency by issue of debt instruments. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has introduced the All-New Tour H1 - India's most fuel efficient entry level commercial hatchback. 
  • Bajaj Finance is offering FD rates of up to 8.60% p.a. 
  • IndusInd Bank inaugurated its 15th branch in Nagpur located at Gandhi Putla.
News Analysis