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NSE Intra-day chart (09 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 10 November 2023
Markets to get negative start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended on a negative note in the volatile session on Thursday, amid fag-end selling. After making a slightly positive start, markets soon turned volatile as traders were cautious with provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showing that foreign institutional investors offloaded shares worth Rs 84.55 crore on November 8. However, markets erased initial losses and managed to keep their heads above water in afternoon deals, as some support came with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the government is looking at easing certain restrictions for units in the special economic zones (SEZ) to promote the sector's growth. SEZs in India are treated as foreign territories for trade and customs duties, with restrictions on duty-free domestic sales. But, buying proved short-lived as key gauges once again fell into red terrain in late afternoon deals, as sentiments got hit amid a private report stating that India's industrial growth likely cooled to 7.5 percent in September on account of some weakening of momentum in activity. According to a report, industrial growth - as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) - likely fell in September for the first time in three months, with high-frequency data indicative of a slowdown. Traders overlooked report that Moody's Investors Service retained India's economic growth forecast for 2023 at 6.7 per cent and said strong domestic demand will likely sustain the growth in the near term. Traders took a note of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) Chairman Sanjay Kumar Agarwal's statement that the growth in October Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, which is the second highest ever, is on account of economic activity and not due to show cause notices to online gaming companies. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 143.41 points or 0.22% to 64,832.20 and the CNX Nifty was down by 48.20 points or 0.25% to 19,395.30.

 

The US markets ended lower on Thursday as treasury yields have jumped following the release of the results of the Treasury Department's thirty-year bond auction. The Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $24 billion worth of thirty-year bonds attracted below average demand. The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 4.769 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24, while the ten previous thirty-year bond auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38. The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold. Treasury yields, which move opposite of their price, shot up following the release of the results as bond prices slumped. On the economic data front, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment claims edged down from an upwardly revised level in the week ended November 4th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. The report said initial jobless claims slipped to 217,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 220,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 218,000 from the 217,000 originally reported for the previous week. On the sectoral front, Pharmaceutical stocks continue to see substantial weakness after trending higher in recent session, dragging the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index down by 2.2 percent. Considerable weakness also remains visible among biotechnology and healthcare stocks, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index falling by 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday on account of lingering concerns about the outlook for energy demand amid global economic slowdown. Oil prices rose despite new data indicating deflationary pressures in China, the world's biggest crude oil importer. China's consumer price inflation fell 0.2% year-on-year in October while factory-gate prices declined 2.6%, falling for a 13th month in a row and raising concerns over domestic demand. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery rose $0.41 or 0.5 percent to settle at $75.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery gained $0.47 or 0.6 percent to settle at $80.01 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Rupee settled flat against dollar on Thursday amid a negative trend in domestic equities and sustained foreign fund outflows. Traders were cautious after private report stated that India's industrial growth likely cooled to 7.5 percent in September on account of some weakening of momentum in activity. According to a report, industrial growth - as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) - likely fell in September for the first time in three months, with high-frequency data indicative of a slowdown. On the global front, the pound edged up against the euro on Thursday after Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Chief Economist Huw Pill, reiterated policy will need to remain restrictive for some time, while Russian rouble strengthened past 92 to the dollar on Thursday, supported by exporters' mandatory foreign currency sales even as oil prices remained at more than three-month lows. Finally, the rupee ended flat (Provisional) with its previous close of 83.30 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6789.94 crore against gross selling of Rs 7682.96 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1423.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 248.29 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.75 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Thursday as Treasury yields climbed after a disappointing auction of 30-year bonds and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday retreating from small gains made in the previous session amid a downbeat tone set by U.S. markets overnight. Indian markets ended in red on Thursday tracking muted global cues amid uncertainty about the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Today, markets likely to start trade for the last day of Samvat 2079 on negative note mirroring weak global cues and a jump in Treasury yields after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed will make future monetary policy decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of incoming data and the implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. Investors may react to the RBI governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that retail inflation remains vulnerable to recurring and overlapping food price shocks. Persistent foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors offloaded shares worth Rs 1,712.33 crore on November 9. However, some respite may come later in the day as Moody's Investors Service retained India's economic growth forecast for 2023 at 6.7 per cent and said strong domestic demand will likely sustain the growth in the near term. With exports remaining weak against an unfavourable global economic backdrop, Moody's in its Global Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-25 said sustained domestic demand growth is propelling India's economy. Some support may also come as a private report said the pace of India's consumer price inflation likely eased further to a four-month low of 4.80% in October, closer to the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target. Banking stocks will be in focus as Fitch Ratings said Indian Banks' Viability Ratings (VR) will continue to benefit from improved operating conditions and performance in the near term. It expects Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to remain stable across banks as they are driven by its expectation of extraordinary support from the Indian sovereign (BBB-/Stable), should there be a need. Investors will keep eye on Q2FY24 result. LIC, M&M, ONGC, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics, Hindalco, SAIL, Ipca Labs, Biocon, Tata Chemicals, and Hudco are among the notable companies scheduled to report September quarter results today. ESAF Small Finance Bank shares will debut on the stock exchanges on Friday at an issue price of Rs 60.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,395.30

19,361.14

19,446.69

BSE Sensex

64,832.20

64,718.46

64,996.26

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

229.79

119.65

118.84

120.49

Coal India

155.03

323.90

318.24

327.04

NTPC

139.87

237.70

235.90

239.60

Power Grid

137.78

210.00

207.24

211.64

State Bank of India

124.34

577.60

575.45

580.80

 

  • JSW Steel has reported the crude steel production for the month of October 2023 at 23.12 lakh tonnes, that grew by 12% as against 20.64 lakh tonnes in October 2022 on consolidated basis. 
  • Infosys has entered into strategic collaboration with Rich Products Corporation.
  • HCL Technologies has earned the Amazon Web Services Marketplace Skilled Channel Partner status in recognition of its expertise in delivering innovative solutions to clients. 
  • Bharti Airtel has over 1.6 million unique 5G customers in West Bengal.
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