In a volatile trade, Indian
Benchmark indices erased most of their initial losses and ended flat with
negative bias on Friday weighed by Oil & Gas and Energy stocks amid a weak
trend in global equity markets. Markets made negative start and stayed in red
for whole day as traders were concerned as the World Bank projected a growth
rate of 6.5 per cent for the Indian economy for the fiscal year 2022-23, a drop
of one per cent from its previous June 2022 projections, citing deteriorating
international environment. It added that private investment growth is likely to
be dampened by heightened uncertainty and higher financing costs. Some anxiety
also came with a private report stated that India's rupee will trade near its
record low against the mighty greenback beyond this year, buffeted by rising
oil prices and an aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve rate-hiking campaign.
However, key gauges managed to trim most of their initial losses in late afternoon
deals, as traders took some support with Chief economic adviser V Anantha
Nageswaran's statement that India is still on course for 7% growth in the
current fiscal year although downside risks dominate the upside risk but it's
better placed than other countries. Some support also came as the Department of
Expenditure, Ministry of Finance, has released the 7th monthly instalment of
Post Devolution Revenue Deficit (PDRD) grant of Rs 7,183.42 crore to 14 states.
With the release of seventh instalment for the month of October, 2022, the
total amount of Revenue Deficit Grants released to the states in current fiscal
has gone up to Rs 50,282.92 crore. Besides, as per provisional data available
on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers to the
tune of Rs 279.01 crore on October 6. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 30.81 points
or 0.05% to 58,191.29 and the CNX Nifty was down by 17.15 points or 0.01% to
17,314.65.
The US markets ended deeply in
red on Friday, with Nasdaq settling around cut of four percent, following the
release of the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report, which
failed to ease concerns about the outlook for interest rates. The report showed
US job growth slowed in the month of September but still came in slightly
stronger than street had anticipated. The report showed non-farm payroll
employment jumped by 263,000 jobs in September after surging by an unrevised
315,000 jobs in August and spiking by an upwardly revised 537,000 jobs in July.
Street had expected employment to leap by 250,000 jobs. The slightly stronger
than expected job growth reflected notable increases in employment in the
leisure and hospitality and healthcare sectors, which added 83,000 jobs and
75,400 jobs, respectively. Street noted the job growth was even stronger
excluding a drop in state and local government education payrolls, which
reflected shifting seasonal patterns in teacher hiring. Besides, a sales
warning from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also weighed on the markets, with the
chipmaker plummeting by 13.9 percent. On the sectoral front, semiconductor
stocks helped lead the markets lower following the warning from AMD, dragging
the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 6.1 percent. The warning also
contributed to considerable weakness among computer hardware stocks, resulting
in a 4.2 percent plunge by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index. Substantial
weakness was also visible among gold stocks, as reflected by the 4.6 percent
nosedive by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The sell-off by gold stocks came
amid a decrease by the price of the precious metal, with gold for December
delivery falling $11.50 to $1,709.30 an ounce.
Crude oil futures ended sharply
higher on Friday, carried higher again by an OPEC+ decision this week to make
its largest supply cut since 2020. The
cut from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including
Russia, known as OPEC+, comes ahead of a European Union embargo on Russian oil
and will squeeze supply in an already tight market. Besides, oil prices kept
rallying even as the dollar moved higher after data showing the US economy was
creating jobs at a strong pace gave the Federal Reserve a reason to continue
hefty interest rate hikes. A strong dollar can pressure oil demand, making
crude more expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark crude oil futures
for November delivery rose $4.19 or 4.7 percent at $92.64 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery surged $3.5 or
about 3.71 percent to settle at $97.92 a barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Indian rupee closed at all-time
low against dollar on Friday amid firm American currency, rising crude oil
prices and negative trend in domestic equities. Sentiments were downbeat as
World Bank in its latest report on South Asia Economic Focus has downgraded
India's economic growth forecast to 6.5 per cent for the fiscal year 2022-23
(FY23), a drop of one per cent from its previous June 2022 projections, citing
deteriorating international environment. Meanwhile, RBI issues concept paper on
digital currency; says will soon launch pilot e-rupee for specific use cases
soon. On the global front, dollar retreated on Friday, ahead of a key
employment report later that could offer a litmus test of the strength of the
U.S. economic recovery, but with the Federal Reserve's commitment to fighting
inflation, strategists believe any weakness won't last. Finally, the rupee
ended at 82.30 (Provisional), weaker by 13 paisa from its previous close of
82.17 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9664.32 crore against gross selling of Rs
8915.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 223.84
crore against gross selling of Rs 251.82 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment,
the gross buying was of Rs 3.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 21.11 crore.
The US markets ended sharply
lower on Friday following a solid jobs report for September that increased the
likelihood the Federal Reserve will barrel ahead with an interest rate hiking
campaign many investors fear will push the U.S. economy into a recession. Asian
markets are trading in red on Monday after a surprise drop in US unemployment
quashed any thought of a pivot on policy tightening ahead of a reading on
inflation which is expected to see core prices move higher again. Indian
markets ended on a flat note in the highly volatile session on October 7, as
investors remain concerned amid the rupee hit fresh high. Today, markets are
likely to get gap-down opening of new week amid sell-off in global markets.
There will be some cautiousness as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly
statistical supplement showed that India's foreign exchange reserves fell to
$532.66 billion in the week through Sept. 30, their lowest level since July
2020. Traders may take note of Union Finance Secretary T V Somanathan's
statement that India has a nano demographic window to achieve developed country
status, and if it misses, it may not reach there. He said the country has to
grow at a rate of 8-8.5 per cent to reach developed country status. However,
some respite may come later in the day as Economic Advisory Council to the
Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal said India will perhaps emerge as
the strongest major economy with 7 per cent growth rate in FY23 amid fears of
the world slipping into recession. Sanyal observed that India can grow at 9 per
cent in an external conducive environment like in early 2000s when the global
economy was growing. Some support may also come as the tax department said the
gross collection of tax on corporate and individual earnings jumped nearly 24
per cent so far in the current fiscal year to Rs 8.98 trillion. This includes a
32 per cent growth in personal income tax (including Securities Transaction
Tax) mop up and 16.73 per cent increase in corporate tax revenues over the same
period last year. Meanwhile, the government on October 10, 2022 will kick off
its annual Budget making exercise for financial year 2023-24, that is expected
to look at measures to revive growth amid a gloomy global outlook. Metal stocks
will be in focus with a private report stating that India's crude steel output
rose by 2.56 per cent to 30.06 million tonne (MT) during the July-September
period of the ongoing financial year. There will be some reaction in oil
industry stocks as the government data showed that India's monthly fuel demand
in September was at the lowest since November 2021. Total monthly fuel demand
in September fell 3.6% from August, although it was up 8.1% when compared with
September 2021. Road and infrastructure industry stocks will be in limelight as
government report stated that the road transport and highways sector has the
maximum number of delayed projects at 248, followed by railways at 116 and
petroleum sector at 88. Meanwhile, IT major Tata Consultancy Services will kick
off the Q2 earnings today.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
17,314.65
|
17,241.95
|
17,362.35
|
BSE
Sensex
|
58,191.29
|
57,938.52
|
58,356.71
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata Steel
|
360.80
|
103.20
|
102.24
|
103.84
|
Coal India
|
146.41
|
231.20
|
228.15
|
233.90
|
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
|
135.32
|
134.00
|
132.05
|
135.10
|
State Bank of India
|
110.65
|
531.00
|
526.50
|
535.55
|
Power Grid Corporation of India
|
107.12
|
209.30
|
205.61
|
211.36
|
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Maruti Suzuki India has expanded its subscribe program to cover 5 new cities.
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