Indian equity benchmarks logged gains for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday aided by Realty, Auto and Industrials stocks. The indices started the session lower, amid negative cues from other Asian markets. However, key gauges soon recovered early lost ground and were trading in the positive territory in mid-morning trade after the Reserve Bank of India hit the pause button and decided to keep key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent even as inflation is trending above its tolerance level. The rate hike has been paused after six consecutive rate increases aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Traders got some support as leading industry bodies said the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) for 2023 announced recently will further boost business sentiments to reach the aspirational target of India becoming a leader in exports. Chairman of CII national committee on exports and imports Sanjay Budhia said that reduction in export performance threshold in the new FTP will enable exporters to achieve reduction in transaction costs for outbound cargo. However, markets trimmed most of their gains in late afternoon deals even as Reserve Bank marginally raised India's economic growth projection for the current financial year to 6.5 per cent on back of higher Rabi crop output, moderating commodity prices, and the government's plan of higher capital expenditure. But, markets regained some traction in final minutes of trade to settle in green as Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das exuded confidence that India's current account deficit (CAD), a key external sector indicator, is likely to remain moderate in the January-March quarter of 2022-23 and also eminently manageable going forward. Some optimism also came with exchange data showing that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought equities worth Rs 806.82 crore on Wednesday. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 143.66 points or 0.24% to 59,832.97 and the CNX Nifty was up by 42.10 points or 0.24% to 17,599.15.

The US markets were closed on Friday on account of Good Friday.

Indian rupee tumbled against dollar on Thursday despite RBI decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. The rate hike has been paused after six consecutive rate increases aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent. Moreover, the RBI has marginally raised its GDP growth projection for FY24 to 6.5% from earlier estimate of 6.4%. On the global front, Russian rouble fell sharply to a near one-year low above 80 to the dollar on Thursday as tight foreign exchange supplies and capital outflows combined with limited liquidity to outweigh support from relatively strong oil prices. Also, traders were concerned about the global economic outlook. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.92 (Provisional), weaker by 2 paise from its previous close of 81.90 on Wednesday.

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7375.17 crore against gross selling of Rs 6552.71 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 858.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 1995.91 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.61 crore.

The US markets remained closed on Friday on account of Good Friday. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors await a closely watched inflation report as well as the release of minutes of the Fed's March meeting this week for additional clues on the economic and rate outlook. Indian markets ended higher on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent during its bi-monthly policy meeting. Today, markets are likely to start holiday shortened week on pessimistic note amid mixed cues from Asian counterparts. Market participants likely to remain on sidelines ahead of macro-economic data -- industrial growth and retail inflation -- during the week. Investors will be also awaiting the official start of earning season with TCS reporting its quarterly numbers on April 12. There will be some cautiousness as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed that India's foreign exchange reserves retreated from more than eight-month highs to $578.45 billion as of the week ended March 31. That is a decrease of around $380 million from the previous week. However, some support may come later in the day as Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said India's merchandise exports touched $447 billion in FY23, up from $442 billion in FY22, though the final data is awaited. This would translate into a 6 per cent year-on-year jump in exports. Traders may take note of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharama's statement that the inflation has been kept at six per cent or below despite adverse circumstances as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Besides, an IMF Working Paper said India has built a world-class digital public infrastructure which is transforming lives and economy and can be a lesson for many countries to follow. Meanwhile, the commerce ministry's investigation arm DGTR has initiated a probe to review the need to continue the anti-dumping duty on flax yarn imported from China, following complaints from the domestic industry. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks as industry body ISMA said India's sugar production fell 3 per cent to 299.6 lakh tonnes in the first six months of the 2022-23 marketing year ending September. Sugar output stood at 309.9 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Tata Steel's consolidated steel production rose by around 3 per cent to 7.77 million tonne during the January-March quarter (Q4FY23). 
• Reliance Industries' subsidiary company -- Reliance Retail has entered into the beauty space with the launch of Tira, an omnichannel beauty retail platform. 
• Coal India is aiming to supply 610 million tonnes of coal to power sector to meet the demand of coal fired plants in 2023-24 (FY24). 
• Bajaj Finserv's unlisted insurance subsidiary -- Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company has reported gross direct premium underwritten of Rs 1118.88 crore in the month of March 2023.