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NSE Intra-day chart (09 February 2022)
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Market Commentary 10 February 2022
Markets likely to open higher ahead of RBI's policy outcome

 

Indian equity benchmarks rose for the second day in a row and ended with gains of over a percent each on Wednesday, as investors awaited the outcome of the RBI's policy review due the next day. Gains across most sectors pushed the headline indices higher, with auto, consumer durables, metal and banking stocks being the biggest movers. Key gauges made optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day, as sentiments got a boost as the preliminary data of the commerce ministry showed that India's exports grew by 28.51 per cent to $8.67 billion during February 1-7 on account of healthy growth in sectors such as petroleum, engineering and gems and jewellery. The exports during the first week of this month rose by about 31 per cent. According to the data, $8.67 billion per week is almost 20 per cent more than the weekly run rate of $7 billion clocked this year. Some support also came as NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said the rise in international fuel and commodity prices may not continue going forward. Indian bourses extended gains in late afternoon deals, as sentiments remained up-beat with Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj's statement that the government is open to 'some tinkering' in the varied rates and holding period for computation of capital gains tax on shares, debt and immovable property, in a bid to make it simple. Some support also came with Crisil Research report where it said Union Budget capex not as high as it sounds. It, however, was quick to add that considering that governments usually tend to cut capex during a crisis, the government has maintained its focus on growth-spurring initiatives amid the pandemic. Adding to the optimism, Telecom Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has made an aggressive pitch for adoption of products that are designed and made in India, citing better quality and costs, as he affirmed the government's firm resolve to improving ease of doing business and reducing regulations in the sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 657.39 points or 1.14% to 58,465.97 and the CNX Nifty was up by 197.05 points or 1.14% to 17,463.80.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday, extending the rally seen in the previous session. The extended rally on markets came as stocks continued to recover from the sharp pullback seen in January, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching its best levels in almost a month. The major averages remained well off the record highs but have climbed well off the multi-month lows set in late January. Further, upbeat earnings news from some well-known companies also contributed to the continued strength on markets. Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill showed a strong upward move after the restaurant chain reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings. Cannabis producer Canopy Growth also moved sharply higher after reporting a narrow than expected fiscal third quarter loss on revenues that exceeded street estimates. On the sectoral front, airline stocks extended the rally seen early in the week, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index soaring by 3.7 percent to its best closing level in well over two months. Significant strength also emerged among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 3.4 percent spike by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Biotechnology stocks also turned in a strong performance on the day, resulting in a 3.3 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. Software, commercial real estate and chemical stocks also saw notable strength on the day, reflecting broad based buying interest on markets.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after data showed a drop in US crude inventories in the week ended February 4th. Data released by US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US crude stocks dropped by 4.8 million barrels last week, the most for a week since October 2018 and three times the expected decline.  The EIA data showed gasoline stocks were down 1.64 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles fell by 929,000 barrels in the week. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery gained $0.30 or about 0.3 percent to settle at $89.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery rose $0.64 or 0.73 percent to settle at $91.44 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Continuing previous session's loss, Indian ended lower against dollar weighed down by significant foreign fund outflows and rising crude oil prices. Traders were cautions, ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary panel committee (MPC) meeting outcome on Thursday morning. The RBI's policy announcement will be the key focus tomorrow as domestic inflation and policy tightening by global central banks would pressurize the central bank to adopt a similar stance. Investors paid no heed toward preliminary data of the commerce ministry showing that India's exports grew by 28.51 per cent to $8.67 billion during February 1-7 on account of healthy growth in sectors such as petroleum, engineering and gems and jewellery. The exports during the first week of this month rose by about 31 per cent. On the global front, euro steadied on Wednesday, off from a three-week high, after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde dialled down bets for aggressive interest rate hikes. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.84 (Provisional), weaker by 10 paise from its previous close of 74.74 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment and net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9065.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 8995.85 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 937.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 1376.11 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 57.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 22.89 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as an easing in a Treasury selloff provided respite to markets whipsawed in recent weeks by concerns about tightening monetary policy. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday as traders awaited inflation data that may shape views on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy. Indian markets extended gains to a second straight day on Wednesday, lifted by financial, IT and auto shares, and heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel. Today, the markets are likely to make positive start following gains in global markets. Investors will monitor the RBI MPC outcome to take cues on repo rate and updates on LIC IPO. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution today. It is widely anticipated that the MPC is likely to maintain the status quo on the benchmark interest rate or repo rate. Traders will be getting encouragement as Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Som Parkash said India has received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows worth $339.55 billion in the last five years. There has been a continuous increase in the inflow of FDI in recent years. It increased from $45.15 billion in 2014-15 to $81.97 billion in 2020-21. Some support will come as amid FY23 Union Budget's focus on investments, leading domestic credit rating agency CRISIL said that the capital expenditure is not as high as it sounds. It, however, was quick to add that considering that governments usually tend to cut capex during a crisis, the government has maintained its focus on growth-spurring initiatives amid the pandemic. Traders may take note of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the projected fiscal deficit of 6.9 per cent for the current financial year is a responsible target as the government has tried to ensure a balance between keeping up expenditure and being fiscally prudent. Meanwhile, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said the government is open to some tinkering in the varied rates and holding period for computation of capital gains tax on shares, debt and immovable property, in a bid to make it simple. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to address the post-budget meeting of the RBI's central board on Monday and highlight key points of the Union Budget 2022-23, including the fiscal consolidation roadmap and high capex plan. Infrastructure industry stocks will be in focus as Union minister Nitin Gadkari said the Road Transport and Highways Ministry has sanctioned highway projects of about Rs 3,36,661 crore during the three years to 2020-21.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,463.80

17,376.15

17,514.30

BSE Sensex

58,465.97

58,211.57

58,614.00

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Coal India

350.79

168.95

162.85

172.20

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

179.38

164.45

161.84

168.34

State Bank of India

148.56

536.30

530.54

539.29

Tata Motors

124.30

501.20

496.04

505.04

ITC

118.93

230.15

228.26

232.51

 

  • SBI has moved the National Company Law Tribunal against Essel Infraprojects for recovery of debts under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.
  • Tata Motors has launched the 'DARK' edition of its premium hatchback Altroz, priced at Rs 7.96 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi), to mark two years of launch of the model in the country. 
  • L&T's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured an order from the Bangladesh Hi-Tech Park Authority to construct Hi-Tech IT Parks at 8 locations across Bangladesh. 
  • ITC's Hotel Group has launched a one-stop app that will let guests access services like room and restaurant reservations, food delivery takeaway and loyalty membership essentials across ITC Hotels, Welcomhotels and select Fortune Hotels.
News Analysis