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NSE Intra-day chart (06 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 09 October 2023
Benchmarks to open in red terrain on Monday

 

Indian equity benchmarks extended their gains for the second consecutive session and ended with gains of over half percent on Friday aided by positive cues from other Asian markets along with buying at Realty, Consumer Durables and Financial Services counters. After the gap-up start, domestic equities inched gradually higher as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the key repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent, while maintaining the 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance. Besides, the Reserve Bank said India is poised to become the growth engine of the world as it retained the GDP projection for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy review, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the domestic economy exhibits resilience on the back of strong demand. Traders got encouragement as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reportedly said the inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan's widely tracked emerging market debt index could bring $23 billion worth inflows into the country. Sentiments remained up-beat in late afternoon deals, as India and the UAE have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on increasing cooperation in the field of industries and advanced technologies. The MoU aims at strengthening and developing industries in both nations through investments, technology transfer and deployment of key technologies in industries, by benefitting from joint funds and mutual efforts. Sentiments remained positive amid a private report stating that the Centre's prospects of meeting its fiscal deficit target of 5.9 percent of GDP for the current financial year have brightened rather considerably over the last few days, with direct tax collections - both corporate and personal income tax - rising massively, and unexpectedly, in August. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 364.06 points or 0.55% to 65,995.63 and the CNX Nifty was up by 107.75 points or 0.55% to 19,653.50.

 

Rebounding from initial weakness, the US markets settled significantly higher on Friday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq gaining over one and half a percent. The initial weakness on Wall Street came following the release of a Labor Department report showing employment in the U.S. surged by much more than expected in the month of September. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment shot up by 336,000 jobs in September compared to street estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs. The closely watched Labor Department report also showed notable upward revisions to job growth in the two previous months. Employment in August and July jumped by 236,000 jobs and 227,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 119,000 jobs. Also, there was some cautiousness after a spike by treasury yields amid renewed concerns about the outlook for interest rates, with yields once again soaring to their highest levels in over sixteen years. However, treasury yields pulled back well off their highs as the day progressed, contributing to the subsequent rebound seen on Wall Street. On the sectoral front, software stocks showed a substantial move to the upside over the course of the session, resulting in a 2.6 percent surge by the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index. Significant strength also emerged among natural gas stocks, as reflected by the 2.3 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index. The strength among natural gas stocks came amid a sharp increase by the price of the commodity, with natural gas for November delivery spiking $0.172 to $3.338 per million BTUs.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday, after two constitutive session of losses, after data showed stronger than expected growth in U.S. non-farm payroll employment in the month of September. The data said non-farm payroll employment shot up by 336,000 jobs in September compared to street estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs. Meanwhile, Russia's government said it had withdrawn a ban on diesel exports delivered to sea ports via pipelines, removing a large chunk of restrictions it put in place last month. Besides, a report released by Baker Hughes showed that the total active drilling rigs in the US dropped by 4 this week. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery rose $0.48 or about 0.6 percent to settle at $82.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery gained $0.54 or about 0.6 percent to settle at $84.58 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee closed stronger against the US dollar on Friday as the Reserve Bank kept the repo rate unchanged in its fourth consecutive monetary policy review. Besides, traders got support as Reserve Bank said India is poised to become the growth engine of the world as it retained the GDP projection for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy review, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the domestic economy exhibits resilience on the back of strong demand. On the global front, the euro was heading on Friday for a record twelfth week of declines against the dollar, unless U.S. jobs data later in the day push the currently all-dominant greenback lower. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.22 (Provisional), stronger by 3 paise from its previous close of 83.25 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11600.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 11937.58 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 413.52 crore with gross sales of Rs 136.81 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 25.00 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday led by technology shares to a sharply higher close as investors assessed a jobs report that showed U.S. hiring rose broadly in September with slowing wage growth. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Indian markets ended higher for second straight session on Friday amid a status quo on interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) while maintaining a hawkish stance due to an uncertain inflation outlook. Today, markets likely to get negative start amid the Israel-Palestine war, sparked over the weekend, is keeping global investors on their toes. Higher crude oil prices also likely to dampen sentiments amid global conflict in the Middle East threatens. Investors also likely to remain on sidelines ahead of kick start of earning season as well as important macro-economic data later in the week. Foreign fund outflows likely to hurt domestic sentiments. According to the provisional data available on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth net Rs 90.29 crore on October 6, 2023. Some cautiousness will come as the RBI data showed that India's forex reserves drop by $3.79 billion to $586.91 billion for the week ended September 29. However, some respite may come later in the day as Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said India is poised to become the new growth engine of the world, as the central bank retained the country's GDP growth forecast at 6.5 per cent for 2023-24, notwithstanding the slowing global economy. Some support may come as CII's business confidence index improved to 67.1 in the July-September quarter of FY24, reflecting robust macro fundamentals of India's economy despite global headwinds. Meanwhile, the GST Council has clarified that guarantees provided by corporates to their subsidiaries will attract an 18 per cent GST, while no tax will be levied if a personal guarantee is given by a director to the company. Coal industry stocks will be in focus as India's coal imports declined 12.08 per cent to 18.26 million tonnes (MT) in August this year over the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said India's soybean production in this crop season could drop by 4.3 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes due to the fall in yields in major states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,653.50

19,603.35

19,689.70

BSE Sensex

65,995.63

65,806.71

66,140.19

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

219.29

125.85

124.96

126.86

Power Grid

128.57

196.90

195.35

197.95

HDFC Bank

88.80

1535.00

1528.24

1543.39

NTPC

88.25

234.50

232.94

236.79

ITC

84.19

442.60

438.30

445.25

 

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has entered into an agreement to acquire around 37.76% equity shareholding of Ezerx Health Tech. 
  • Bajaj Finance has partnered with TATA AIG General Insurance to offer Car Insurance Policies.
  • ICICI Bank has launched Festive Bonanza, with exciting offers, discounts and cashbacks of up to Rs 26,000 for its customers at the onset of the festive season. 
  • Wipro has incorporated stepdown subsidiary namely Wipro Czech Republic IT Services s.r.o. with effect from October 4, 2023.
News Analysis