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NSE Intra-day chart (07 September 2022)
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Market Commentary 08 September 2022
Benchmarks likely to get optimistic start on firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks recouped most of their initial losses, but ended in the negative zone on Wednesday amid dull global cues. Key gauges made gap-down opening and remained under immense selling pressure during early deals, as traders were concerned as domestic ratings agency Icra said India's current account deficit (CAD) will widen to 5 per cent of the GDP in the September quarter due to higher merchandise trade deficit. The trade deficit has doubled to $28.7 billion for August due to a 36.8 per cent expansion in imports and a 1.2 per cent decline in export earnings. Domestic sentiments remained pessimistic, amid private report estimating that India's consumer price index (CPI) firmed to 6.9% year-on-year in August, while core inflation likely stood at 6%. However, key gauges recovered most of their lost ground and came off day's lows in late afternoon deals, taking support from Moody's Investors Service's statement that India's economic recovery is unlikely to be derailed by rising challenges to the global economy, higher inflation and tightening financial conditions, and affirmed a stable outlook for the country's rating Baa3. Also, Moody's saw the Indian economy expanding by 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal compared to 8.7 per cent growth in the last financial year that ended on March 31. For 2023-24, it estimates a 6.3 per cent GDP growth. Some support also came as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India's goods and services exports have already crossed $675 billion in the last fiscal year and the country is now aspiring to take international trade to $2 trillion by 2030. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 168.08 points or 0.28% to 59,028.91 and the CNX Nifty was down by 31.20 points or 0.18% to 17,624.40.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday with Nasdaq settling higher over two percent as some traders looked to pick up stocks at reduced levels following the recent weakness, which dragged the major averages down to their lowest levels in over a month. While other recent bargain hunting efforts have faltered over the course of the trading day, traders may now feel that interest rate concerns have been priced into the markets. Meanwhile, the rebound also came amid a pullback by treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note giving back ground after reaching a nearly three-month high on Tuesday. Markets saw further upside following the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which said economic activity in the US has been essentially unchanged since early July. The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in each of the twelve Fed districts, noted five districts reported slight to modest growth in activity and five others reported slight to modest softening. With regard to inflation, the Fed said prices remained highly elevated, with substantial price increases reported across all districts, particularly for food, rent, utilities, and hospitality services. However, the report noted nine districts reported some degree of moderation in rate of price growth in recent months. A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit narrowed significantly in the month of July. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit shrank to $70.6 billion in July from a revised $80.9 billion in June. Street had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $70.3 billion from the $79.6 billion originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red with cut of over five and half percent on Wednesday on demand worries. Rising concerns about the outlook for energy demand from China due to Covid-related lockdowns and expectations of interest rate hikes by central banks weighed on oil prices. The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rates by 75 basis points. The European Central Bank, which is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Thursday, is widely expected to announce a sharp hike in rates following eurozone inflation hitting a record 9.1% in August, going high above the bank's 2% target. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery fell $4.94 or about 5.7 percent to settle at $81.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery dropped $4.83 or about 5.2 percent to settle at $88 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.   

 

Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Wednesday, tracking a strong dollar in overseas markets and losses in the domestic equities. Traders were worried as domestic ratings agency Icra said India's current account deficit (CAD) will widen to 5 per cent of the GDP in the September quarter due to higher merchandise trade deficit. The trade deficit has doubled to $28.7 billion for August due to a 36.8 per cent expansion in imports and a 1.2 per cent decline in export earnings. Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that India's goods and services exports have already crossed $675 billion in the last fiscal year and the country is now aspiring to take international trade to $2 trillion by 2030. On the global front, Sterling slipped against a rampaging dollar on Wednesday, lingering near 2-1/2 year lows. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.95 (Provisional), weaker by 13 paisa from its previous close of 79.82 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6998.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 5293.74 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 648.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 152.04 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.19 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday climbed the most in roughly a month as bond yields eased, with investors shrugging off hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday following Wall Street's solid rebound rally overnight in the best day since August 10 for all three averages. Indian markets ended lower on Wednesday after losses in rate-sensitive banking and auto shares amid weak global market trends as higher interest rate and recession fears hit investors' sentiment. Today, the start of session is likely to be optimistic tracking firm global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement as International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that despite global uncertainty and headwinds, India continues to be a bright spot in the global economy. Some support will come as Sanjiv Bajaj, President of industry body CII said India is in a much better position to deal with the challenges related to growth and inflation. Buying by foreign investors in domestic markets likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net-bought shares worth Rs 758.37 crore on September 7, as per provisional data available on the NSE. Meanwhile, Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal has launched an initiative -- SETU (Supporting Entrepreneurs in Transformation and Upskilling) -- to connect startups in India to US-based investors. However, there may be some cautiousness as a private report raised its estimate of India's current account deficit (CAD) as a share of the gross domestic product for 2023, citing higher commodity prices and chances of an export slowdown. There will be some buzz in consumer durable industry stocks with Crisil's report that despite increasing margin pressure, the consumer durables sector is likely to witness a double-digit volume growth, pushing its revenue up by 15-18 per cent to Rs 1 lakh crore this fiscal. According to the report, a 10-13 per cent spike in demand/volume, which will be driven by both urban and rural segments -- led mostly by the AC and refrigerator segments, though rural demand will come into play in the second half of the fiscal. Oil industry stocks will be in focus as data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Oil Ministry showed India's fuel demand rose 16.3% in August compared with the same month last year. It said consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled 17.81 million tonnes. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks as Icra in its report stated that domestic airlines industry is expected to report a net loss of around Rs 15,000-17,000 crore this fiscal on account of elevated price of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) and a weak rupee.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,624.40

17,522.21

17,688.66

BSE Sensex

59,028.91

58,779.04

59,222.61

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Bharti Airtel

1,267.94

752.00

704.84

780.54

Tata Steel

439.45

107.60

106.84

108.64

Tata Motors

207.64

446.20

441.06

453.91

NTPC

194.15

167.25

165.89

169.39

Coal India

127.51

239.00

234.46

241.41

 

  • Infosys has inked a five-year agreement with Spirit AeroSystems, Inc. 
  • Coal India's production increased by 44.6 MT as of September 4, eclipsing the previous best of 44.5 MT registered in FY16, which though was for the entire year. 
  • State Bank of India has partnered with WAAREE.  
  • M&M's subsidiary -- MASL has agreed to sell its entire stake aggregating 91.59% of the paid-up Equity Share Capital in MKPL, a subsidiary of MASL, to the founder and promoter of MKPL.
News Analysis