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NSE Intra-day chart (07 June 2023)
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Market Commentary 08 June 2023
Benchmarks to get cautious start ahead of RBI's policy outcome

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher by over half percent on Wednesday, aided by Telecom, Utilities and Metal stocks ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting outcome on June 8.  Key indices made an optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day as provisional data from the National Stock Exchange shows foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 385.71 crore on June 6. Traders took support with Credit rating agency ICRA in its latest report stating that India Inc. have witnessed sequential expansion in margins in Q4 FY2023, with a YoY increase of 11.4%, while the sequential revenue growth was relatively moderate at 5.2%. Markets extended gains in late afternoon deals, as the sentiments were further supported with the World Bank stating that India would remain the fastest-growing economy in terms of both aggregate and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) among the largest emerging market and developing economies in FY24.  Some solace also came amid a private report stating that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to pause for a second straight month as inflation eases and market watchers are looking for cues of a shift in policy stance to support growth in Asia's third largest economy. Adding to optimism, Union Minister for Law and Justice Arjun Ram Meghwal has said that the government has undertaken several steps to strengthen the judiciary and alternate dispute resolution mechanism which will act as an incentive to foreign investors and help take India-UK relations to new heights. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 350.08 points or 0.56% to 63,142.96 and the CNX Nifty was up by 127.40 points or 0.68% to 18,726.40.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada once again raised interest rates after leaving rates unchanged for two straight meetings, raising the concerns about the outlook for U.S. rates. The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent, citing stubbornly high inflation and stronger than expected economic growth. Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision next Wednesday, with the central bank widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. On the sectoral front, software stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the session, dragging the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index down by 3.3 percent. The index continued to give back ground after reaching its best closing level in over a year on Monday. Significant weakness also emerged among retail stocks, with the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index falling by 1.4 percent after ending Tuesday's trading at a nearly nine-month closing high. On the economic data front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in the month of April. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit increased to $74.6 billion in April from a revised $60.6 billion in March. Street had expected the trade deficit to jump to $75.2 billion from the $64.2 billion originally reported for the previous month. The wider trade deficit came as the value of exports plunged by 3.6 percent to $249.0 billion, while the value of imports surged by 1.5 percent to $323.6 billion.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's plans for deep output cuts more than offset demand woes stemming from rising U.S. fuel stocks. Data showing a drop in U.S. crude inventories last week helped as well. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles dropped by about 450,000 barrels. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) signaled the U.S. will see strong travel demand this summer. Besides, Data showing crude oil imports into China, the world's largest oil importer, rose to their third-highest monthly level in May, helped push up oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery rose $0.79 or about 1.1 percent to settle at $72.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for August delivery gained $0.66 or 0.9 percent to settle at $76.95 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Wednesday amid foreign fund inflows. Traders got support as the World Bank said India would remain the fastest-growing economy in terms of both aggregate and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) among the largest emerging market and developing economies in FY24. Besides, a private report stated that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to pause for a second straight month as inflation eases and market watchers are looking for cues of a shift in policy stance to support growth in Asia's third largest economy. On the global front, dollar dipped on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian dollar touched one-month highs as traders amped up bets for the country to raise rates and the Turkish lira hit record lows. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.55 (Provisional), stronger by 5 paise from its previous close of 82.60 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9479.85 crore against gross selling of Rs 8368.44 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 820.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 807.60 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 98.61 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as investors await the next market catalyst. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Thursday as Wall Street saw a pause in its market rally and the broad market index fluctuated near its highest closing levels since August 2022. Indian markets ended near intraday high levels on Wednesday amid buying by foreign portfolio investors (FPI). Today, domestic indices are likely to get cautious start amid negative cues from global markets and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy outcome later in the day. There are expectations that the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI is likely to keep the policy repo rate unchanged. This was the second bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of FY24 which began on June 6. There will be some cautiousness as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has marginally raised its 2023-24 (FY24) growth forecast for India to 6 per cent, from 5.9 per cent estimated earlier, while maintaining that weak global demand and the effect of monetary policy tightening will constrain growth in the world's fifth-largest economy in the current fiscal year. Though, some support may come with foreign fund inflows in the markets. provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1,382.57 crore on June 7. Traders may take note of report that the next Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting is likely to approve the number of appellate tribunal benches to be formed in each state, the rules for appointments to the benches, and other procedural issues. Meanwhile, a private report noted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s decision to allow banks having a presence in the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) to offer non-deliverable derivatives contracts (NDDC) to domestic non-retail segments will boost INR trade volumes. Shares of rate sensitive stocks likely banking and financial services, automobiles, real-estate, and consumer durables will be in focus as the central bank announces interest rate stance. Oil & gas sector stocks will be in limelight after oil prices climbed overnight as Saudi Arabia's plans for deep output cuts more than offset demand woes stemming from rising U.S. fuel stocks and weak Chinese export data.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,726.40

18,661.95

18,764.90

BSE Sensex

63,142.96

62,924.47

63,278.95

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

451.57

111.50

109.69

112.54

Coal India

218.53

230.90

228.84

232.24

Tata Motors

208.55

567.10

554.50

577.35

ICICI Bank

164.86

940.00

933.91

945.96

Axis Bank

157.96

975.00

968.31

981.46

 

  • Maruti Suzuki India has launched highly anticipated off-roader Jimny at a starting price of Rs 12,74,000. 
  • HCL Technologies has launched state-of-the-art test lab in Chennai, India to enable global telecom infrastructure OEMs to test and validate 5G solutions. 
  • Infosys has opened a new Proximity Centre in Oslo, Norway as part of its continued expansion plan in the Nordics. 
  • SIDBI has entered into a MoU with HDFC Bank for providing financial solutions to MSMEs.
News Analysis