Indian equity
benchmarks suffered sharp losses for the fourth straight day in a row, dragging
the Sensex and Nifty below critical levels of 52,900 and 15,900, respectively.
Concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as rising crude oil prices,
drove the markets lower. The markets
started the week with a huge downside gap, as sentiments got hit as Jayanth R
Varma, who is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI), has said the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to have
adverse effects on both economic growth as well as inflation and policy makers
must remain alert and ready to respond rapidly to the emerging situation. The
mood on the street got impacted as a private report lowered India's economy
growth forecast to 7.8 per cent for 2022 due to the nation's exports being
impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war and spiking oil prices causing ripple
effects. It said rupee is likely to further depreciate against US dollar while
soaring commodity prices will push inflation up. Key indices continued to trade
in deep red in the late afternoon session as overseas investors withdrew as
much as Rs 17,537 crore from the Indian markets in just three trading sessions
of March as investors' sentiment was dented by the uncertainty caused by the
Russia-Ukraine war and rising crude oil prices. Market participants also took a
note of Credit ratings agency Crisil's report stated that the Reserve Bank of
India's (RBI) revised norms led to a 1.50 per cent jump in the non-banking
finance companies' (NBFCs) reported gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) to 6.80
per cent in the December quarter (Q3FY22). Meanwhile, the Goods and Services
Tax (GST) Council in its next meeting may look at raising the lowest tax slab
to 8 per cent, from 5 per cent, and prune the exemption list in the GST regime
as it looks to increase revenues and do away with states' dependence on Centre
for compensation. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1491.06 points or 2.74% to
52,842.75 and the CNX Nifty was down by 382.20 points or 2.35% to 15,863.15.
The US markets ended deeply in
red on Monday, extending the downward move seen over the previous sessions, as
investors grew increasingly concerned higher energy prices stemming from the
Russia-Ukraine conflict would slow the economy and raise inflation. The
continued jump in oil prices comes as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said
that the US and European partners are in active discussions about banning the
import of Russian oil in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine. The
increase in gas prices is likely to weigh on consumers, who are already
grappling with higher prices due to elevated inflation. This all comes as the
Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates by at least a quarter point at
its monetary policy meeting next week. On the sectoral front, airline stocks
turned in some of the market's worst performances on the day amid concerns
about higher fuel costs, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index plummeting by 13.3
percent to its lowest closing level in well over a year. Substantial weakness
was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 5.2 percent nosedive
by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. Semiconductor stocks also showed a
significant move to the downside on the day, dragging the Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index down by 4.9 percent. Financial, tobacco, chemical and
retail stocks also saw considerable weakness, moving lower along with most of
the other major sectors.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Monday, extending their recent sessions' rally, lifted by concerns over global
oil supplies amid talks the US and its Western allies are likely to impose a
ban on Russian oil. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US and its
allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports. Uncertainty
about a revival of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers also contributed to
supply concerns and the resultant surge in oil prices to 14-year highs. Benchmark
crude oil futures for April delivery rose $3.72 or 3.2 percent to settle at
$119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May
delivery climbed $5.1 or 4.3 percent to settle at $123.21 a barrel on London's
Intercontinental Exchange.
Rupee ended at lifetime low on
Monday as a sharp surge in global crude oil prices to above $130 threatened to
push up imported inflation and widen the country's trade and current account
deficits. The rupee declined against the US dollar as intensifying geopolitical
risks due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed investors to the greenback's
safe-haven appeal. Besides, sustained foreign fund outflows and a lacklustre
trend in domestic equities also weighed investor sentiment. Sentiments were
fragile as a private report lowered India's economy growth forecast to 7.8 per
cent for 2022 due to the nation's exports being impacted by the Russia-Ukraine
war and spiking oil prices causing ripple effects. It said rupee is likely to
further depreciate against US dollar while soaring commodity prices will push
inflation up. On the global front, pound roared to another 5-1/2 year high
versus the euro but dropped to its weakest since December 2020 against the
dollar, as another volatile session sent investors to buy dollars. Finally, the
rupee ended at 77.10 (Provisional), weaker by 93 paise from its previous close
of 76.17 on Friday.
The FIIs as per Monday's data
were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 5995.80 crore against gross selling of Rs 13494.42 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 315.03 crore against
gross sales of Rs 1443.51 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 32.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.31 crore.
The US markets ended in red on
Monday as the prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia sent crude prices
soaring and fueled concerns about rising inflation. Asian markets are trading
mostly lower on Tuesday as Ukraine and Russia fail to reach a deal on creating
humanitarian corridors from affected cities. Indian markets suffered sharp
losses for the fourth day in a row on Monday as crude oil prices surged past
the $130 a barrel mark amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. Today, domestic indices are
likely to continue their losing streak with negative start as investors
continue to track global developments around the Russia-Ukraine war and the US
stance on any possible bans on Russia's oil and gas. Traders will be concerned
with report that Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as
oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for
over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including
UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per
barrel. Some cautiousness may also come as rating agency Icra said the ongoing
conflict between Ukraine and Russia will burden domestic steelmakers with high
input costs. However, some support may come with Commerce and Industry Minister
Piyush Goyal's statement that goods exports will exceed the ambitious target
set for the current fiscal and touch $410 billion, despite the supply-side
disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Separately, he said the
budget announcements and steps like production linked incentive (PLI) scheme
are efforts in making the country self-sufficient and achieve sustainable
development. He also said India is hoping to use its livestock base to produce
energy in the days to come. Traders may take note of report that Union Finance
Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Union Budget for 2022-23, which she had
presented, stands for continuity to provide a tax predictable regime and a
vision for the next 25 years. She added that the budget also makes sure that
the country is adequately endowed to celebrate when it attains 100 years of
independence. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as trade body AISTA said
Indian mills have signed sugar export deals for supply of 62 lakh tonnes so far
in the current 2021-22 marketing year that started from October 1.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
15,863.15
|
15,734.86
|
15,968.01
|
BSE
Sensex
|
52,842.75
|
52,405.27
|
53,242.04
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
|
1,325.38
|
187.00
|
172.80
|
195.50
|
ITC
|
452.58
|
225.95
|
221.70
|
228.60
|
Tata Motors
|
448.36
|
395.75
|
388.25
|
402.50
|
Coal India
|
416.42
|
188.60
|
182.86
|
193.16
|
State Bank of India
|
337.20
|
441.15
|
431.75
|
452.25
|
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