Indian equity
benchmarks extended fall for the third straight session on Friday tracking a
weak trend in global equities amid escalating tensions between Russia and
Ukraine. Markets made a gap-down opening and stayed in red for whole day, as
traders remained cautious with a private report that India's trade and current
account deficits are likely to widen, putting pressure on the rupee, as global
oil prices surge and the domestic economy reopens from a third wave of the
pandemic. Traders were also cautious, as the CBIC cautioned the public against
sharing Aadhaar and PAN details without a valid reason or for monetary gains,
saying that the information could be misused by fraudsters for GST evasion.
However, key gauges recouped some of their losses in afternoon deals, as
traders took some support as India's service sector activity improved in the
month of February, as COVID-19 cases declined and restrictions were lifted. As
per the survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business
Activity Index surged to 51.8 in February from 51.5 in January. Further, the
Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures both manufacturing
and services -- also improved to 53.5 in February from 53.0 in January. But,
markets failed to hold recovery and ended lower as some pessimism remained
among traders with private report stated that the value of foreign portfolio
investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three
months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding
quarter. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 768.87 points or 1.40% to 54,333.81 and
the CNX Nifty was down by 252.70 points or 1.53% to 16,245.35.
The US markets extended their
previous session's losses and ended lower on Friday as concerns about the
impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to weigh on the markets,
with Russia ratcheting up its attacks. Russia has reportedly taken control of
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is the largest nuclear power
plant in Europe. The Russian attack on the plant had previously caused a fire
to break out at the facility, raising concerns about a potential nuclear
disaster. Worries about Ukraine overshadowed a typically closely watched Labor
Department report showing U.S. employment once again jumped by much more than
expected in the month of February. The report showed non-farm payroll
employment spiked by 678,000 jobs in February after surging by an upwardly
revised 481,000 jobs in January. Street had expected employment to increase by
400,000 jobs compared to the addition of 467,000 jobs originally reported for
the previous month. With the stronger than expected job growth, the
unemployment rate dipped to 3.8 percent in February from 4.0 percent in
January. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down to 3.9 percent. The
report also showed a slowdown in the annual rate of wage growth, which
economists suggested could lead to less pressure on the Federal Reserve to
aggressively raise interest rates.
Crude oil futures rallied on
Friday, with U.S. prices settling at their highest since 2008, as worries about
supply disruptions grew amid an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict after
Russia attacked and seized Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. As the
war continues to rage, it is feared that Western countries will likely impose
more stringent sanctions on Russia that could significantly disrupt oil exports
from the country, which is the world's biggest exporter of crude and oil
products combined. A report from Baker Hughes said the oil rigs count in the
U.S. dropped by 3 to 519 in the week ending March 4. The number of total active
drilling rigs in the U.S. remains unchanged at 650. Benchmark crude oil futures
for April delivery rose $8.01 or 7.4 percent to settle at $115.68 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery climbed $7.65 or
6.9 percent to settle at $118.11 a barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Indian rupee ended substantially
lower against dollar to touch its lowest level since mid-December, as the
deepening crisis in Ukraine sent oil prices surging and stoked inflation fears.
Traders were worried as Russian troops were shelling Europe's largest nuclear
power plant, in Ukraine, raising worries over radiation risks. Additional
pressure came with private report stating that India's trade and current
account deficits are likely to widen, putting pressure on the rupee, as global
oil prices surge and the domestic economy reopens from a third wave of the
pandemic. On the global front, euro fell to a seven-year low versus the Swiss
franc and hit its lowest point in almost two years versus the dollar on Friday
as the war in Ukraine lowered expectations of European economic growth. Finally,
the rupee ended at 76.17 (Provisional), weaker by 23 paise from its previous
close of 75.94 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 7092.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 13623.41 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 145.07 crore against
gross sales of Rs 403.91 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 1.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 8.21 crore.
The US markets ended lower on
Friday as the war in Ukraine overshadowed an acceleration in U.S. jobs growth
last month that pointed to strength in the economy. Asian markets are trading
deeply in red on Monday as oil prices soar amid the risk of a US and European
ban on Russian supply and delays in Iranian talks triggered what was shaping up
as a major stagflationary shock for world markets. Indian markets extended
losses to a third straight day on Friday amid heightened geopolitical tensions,
after Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces captured the Zaporizhzhia
nuclear plant. Today, markets are likely to make gap-down opening as Brent
Crude surged to hit the $130 per barrel-mark in early trade, highest since
2008, amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Traders will be concerned as a
private report lowered India's economy growth forecast to 7.8 per cent for 2022
due to the nation's exports being impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war and
spiking oil prices causing ripple effects. It said rupee is likely to further
depreciate against US dollar while soaring commodity prices will push inflation
up. However, Indian banking sector will likely remain resilient. There will be
some cautiousness as the Reserve Bank data stated that India's forex reserves
declined by $1.425 billion to $631.527 billion for the week ended in February
25 due to a dip in currency assets. Meanwhile, the GST Council in its next
meeting may look at raising the lowest tax slab to 8 percent, from 5 percent,
and prune the exemption list in the Goods and Services Tax regime as it looks
to increase revenues and do away with states' dependence on Centre for
compensation. There will be some buzz in the sugar sector stocks as industry
body ISMA said India's sugar exports are estimated to increase 15.38 per cent
year-on-year to 7.5 million tonnes (MT) in the current marketing year 2021-22, on
likely rise in demand for the Indian sweetener amid the possibility of a global
deficit. Agriculture industry stocks will be in focus as India's exports of
agricultural items and processed foods rose 23% year on year to $19,709 million
during April-January 2021-22, indicating continued robustness of the segment in
the country's exports basket. There will be some reaction in tea industry
stocks as latest Tea Board data showed that tea exports during the 12 months of
2021 declined marginally at 195.50 million kilogramme from 209.72 million kg
during the previous similar period. Metal stocks will be in limelight as
somestic steel makers have hiked the prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) and TMT
bars by up to Rs 5,000 per tonne as supply chain is being impacted amid ongoing
Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
16,245.35
|
16,100.76
|
16,422.96
|
BSE
Sensex
|
54,333.81
|
53,809.93
|
54,935.48
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
ITC Coal India
|
668.35
|
225.00
|
218.86
|
229.26
|
Tata Motors
|
387.65
|
418.40
|
411.49
|
428.59
|
Coal India
|
360.95
|
181.70
|
177.80
|
188.30
|
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
|
326.58
|
165.90
|
162.84
|
169.99
|
State Bank of India
|
206.84
|
462.45
|
456.44
|
469.69
|
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