Indian equity benchmarks managed to end a range bound session higher on the first trading day of the financial year 2023-24, helped by buying in Telecom, Auto and Realty shares despite a spike in crude oil prices. Markets made a positive start as traders took some encouragement with report that GST collection grew 13 per cent in March to Rs 1.60 lakh crore - the second highest mop-up since the rollout of the indirect tax regime. Some optimism also came as Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal exuded confidence that India's merchandise and services exports will cross $2 trillion by 2030 from the current level of $765 billion. However, markets soon slipped in red as traders turned cautious with the latest public debt management report showing that the government's total liabilities rose to Rs 150.95 lakh crore in December quarter from Rs 147.19 lakh crore in the three months ended September 2022. However, in the late afternoon deals, markets erased all of their initial losses to settle in green amid report stating that India's manufacturing sector activity improved in the month of March, as growth of factory orders and production quickened to the strongest in three months. With pressure on supply chains subsiding and raw material availability improving, input cost inflation retreated to its second-lowest mark in two-and-a-half years. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to 56.4 in March from 55.3 in February, signaling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. Meanwhile, RBI's rate-setting panel started its three-day meeting amid expectations that the central bank may go for 25 basis points hike in benchmark interest rate, probably the last in the current monetary tightening cycle that began in May 2022. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 114.92 points or 0.19% to 59,106.44 and the CNX Nifty was up by 38.30 points or 0.22% to 17,398.05.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as traders cashed in on recent strength in the markets amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook. Negative sentiment was also generated by a Labor Department report showing job openings in the U.S. decreased by more than expected in the month of February. The report said job openings fell to 9.9 million in February from a revised 10.6 million in January. Street had expected job openings to decline to 10.4 million from the 10.8 million originally reported for the previous month. Further, a report released by the Commerce Department showed new orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell by more than expected in the month of February. The Commerce Department said factory orders slid by 0.7 percent in February after plunging by a revised 2.1 percent in January. Street had expected factory orders to decrease by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.6 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. Traders also continued to look ahead to the release of the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday. Street currently expect the report to show employment increased by 240,000 jobs in March after climbing by 311,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.6 percent. On the sectoral front, Steel stocks showed a substantial pullback on the day, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index plunging by 4.1 percent after closing higher for eight straight sessions. Considerable weakness also emerged among energy stocks, which gave back ground after soaring on Monday along with the price of crude oil.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday, magnifying their recent gains. The decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to cut crude production by an additional 1.16 million barrels from May till the end of this year, continued to support oil prices. Meanwhile, investors now await weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $0.29 or nearly 0.4 percent to settle at $80.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery added $0.01 to settle at $84.94 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower against the US dollar on Monday as a strong American currency in the overseas market and firm crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments. Traders ignored finance ministry's statement that Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection grew 13 per cent in March 2023 to Rs 1.60 lakh crore over the same month last year. Besides, India's manufacturing sector activity improved in the month of March, as growth of factory orders and production quickened to the strongest in three months. On the global front, dollar trimmed its initial gains against major pairs in the course of Monday as investors focus on diverging central bank policy, with the impact of oil production cuts complicating the inflation outlook. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.31 (Provisional), weaker by 10 paise from its previous close of 82.21 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12995.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 10629.13 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2906.68 crore against gross selling of Rs 2859.65 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.58 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday after evidence of a cooling economy exacerbated worries that the Federal Reserve's campaign to rein in decades-high inflation may cause a deep downturn. Asian markets trading mixed on Wednesday following a lower close on Wall Street. Indian markets ended modestly higher on Monday in a choppy session as buying in auto stocks aided the gains after reporting encouraging sales for March. Indian markets remained shut on Tuesday on account of public holiday. Today, start of the session is likely to be pessimistic as global growth concerns returned to the fore after manufacturing and jobs data in the US disappointed investors. Domestically, traders will be concerned with growth outlook as the World Bank in a report said India's GDP is expected to moderate to 6.3 per cent, as against earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent, due to moderation in consumption in FY24. It added growth is likely to be constrained by slower consumption growth and challenging external conditions. Also, the Asian Development Bank said India's economic growth is expected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in the current financial year due to tight monetary conditions and elevated oil prices as compared to 6.8 per cent expansion for the financial year ended March 2023. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 321.93 crores on April 3, the National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed. Traders may be taking encouragement as gross direct tax collection in 2022-23 rose by around 20 per cent to Rs 19.68 lakh crore, exceeding the government's revised collection target. Some optimism may come as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the country's goods exports touched $447 billion till the last count for 2022-23 fiscal year as against $422 billion in 2021-22. Traders may take note of Crisil Ratings' statement that India Inc's key credit ratios moderated sharply in the second half of FY23 on expected lines and are likely to go down further, maintaining that upgrades will continue to outpace downgrades. Meanwhile, investors will be looking for the Services PMI data to be out later in the day. Stocks related to upstream oil company and aviation industry will be in focus as the Centre slashed windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil to nil from Rs 3,500 a tonne, effective from April 4. It has also reduced the levy on diesel to 50 paise per litre from Rs 1. The move means crude oil, aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and petrol will not attract windfall tax. There will be some reaction in auto industry stocks with data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) showing that automotive retail sales saw a 14 per cent rise in March on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. For the whole of financial year 2022-23 (FY23), sales grew 21 per cent YoY.

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• HDFC Bank has reported around 16.9% rise in its advances to around Rs 16,005 billion as of March 31, 2023 as compared to Rs 13,688 billion as of March 31, 2022. 
• Tata Motors' total domestic sales has increased by 3 per cent to 89,351 units in March compared to the same month last year. The company sold 86,718 units in March 2022. 
• Bajaj Finance has launched the Insta Personal Loan as its latest product offering in the loans segment.
• Coal India's coal production has increased by 4% to 83.5 million tonnes (MT) in March 2023 as against 80.3 MT in March 2022.