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NSE Intra-day chart (01 December 2023)
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Market Commentary 04 December 2023
Markets likely to get gap-up opening on Monday

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for the fourth consecutive session on Friday and gained over half a percent, driven by favourable macroeconomic data. Most sectors contributed to the move wherein Power, FMCG and Capital Goods were among the top gainers. Markets made a positive start and stayed higher for whole day as the Indian economy grew 7.6 per cent during the July-September quarter of the current financial year 2023-24, remaining the fastest-growing major economy. India's GDP growth for the April-June quarter grew 7.8 per cent. Some support also came with Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran's statement that India's economic growth momentum will continue in the October-December quarter and the economy is poised to comfortably clock a 6.5 per cent growth rate for the full fiscal underpinned by investment and consumer momentum. Besides, foreign fund inflows also supported sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors net bought shares worth Rs 8,147.85 crore on November 30. Markets extended gains in afternoon deals, as India's manufacturing sector growth improved in the month of November, as strengthening client demand and more favourable input supply boosted production volumes. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 56.0 in November 2023 from 55.5 in October 2023.  Some solace also came as the output of eight core industries posted a growth of 12.1 percent in October 2023 on the back of robust expansion in coal, electricity, cement and steel. Core sector growth was a mere 0.7 percent in October 2022. Adding to the optimism, a labour ministry said retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 4.45 per cent in October from 4.72 per cent in September mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 492.75 points or 0.74% to 67,481.19 and the CNX Nifty was up by 134.75 points or 0.67% to 20,267.90.

The US markets ended higher on Friday. The strength on markets partly reflected ongoing optimism about the outlook for interest rates following the release of a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showing a continued contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity in the month of November. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI came in at 46.7 in November, unchanged from October, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Street had expected the index to inch up to 47.6. Markets saw further upside even after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's called speculation about interest rate cuts premature during remarks at Spelman College. Powell acknowledged recent signs of slowing price growth but said the Fed is committed to keeping monetary policy restrictive until officials are confident inflation is on a path to 2 percent. On the sectoral front, transportation stocks extended the strong upward move seen on Thursday, driving the Dow Jones Transportation Average up by 3.0 percent to a three-month closing high. Substantial strength also emerged among networking stocks, as reflected by the 2.8 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Networking Index. The index reached its best closing level in two months.

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower for a second day on Friday amid mounting skepticism over OPEC+ output cuts. Oil prices were weighed down by a lack of firm commitment to the 2.2 million barrel per day cut decided by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. Saudi Arabia has committed to extending its one million barrel cut until the end of March, and Russia has increased its export reduction from 300,000 to 500,000 barrels. There are concerns that OPEC+ might find it tough to follow through and reduce output, as the output cuts announced are voluntary and not mandatory. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery fell $1.89 or about 2.5 percent to settle at $74.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for February delivery shed $1.98 or about 2.5 percent to settle at $78.88 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended higher on Friday following positive cues from equity markets and strong domestic macroeconomic data. Investors got encouragement after India's economy grew 7.6 percent during the July-September quarter of the current financial year 2023-24 (Q2FY24) as against 6.2 per cent in the year-ago period. Besides, India's manufacturing sector growth improved in the month of November, as strengthening client demand and more favourable input supply boosted production volumes. On the global front, dollar edged lower on Friday, while the euro rebounded slightly after steep overnight losses, as traders weighed data showing inflation was easing and looked ahead to a talk later in the day by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.30 (Provisional), stronger by 7 paise from its previous close of 83.37 on Thursday.

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 69278.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 59534.17 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2366.96 crore with gross sales of Rs 2457.58 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 20.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 19.74 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Friday amid growing optimism the Federal Reserve was done raising US interest rates and could begin to cut them next year as inflation cools. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday amid growing optimism over the outlook for interest rates. Indian markets ended significantly higher on Friday as strong GDP data for the September quarter as well as encouraging core sector output figures for October raised optimism about India's growth story. Today, markets are likely to extend their previous session's gains with gap-up opening spurred by the Bhartiya Janta Party's (BJP) resounding win in state elections. The BJP decisively secured victories in three of the four key states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, heightening expectations for regime continuity in 2024. Investors will keep eye on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting later this week. There are expectations that the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the status quo on the short-term interest rate in its monetary policy review, with inflation staying in comfort zone and economic growth moving at an accelerated pace. Some support will come with report that after turning net sellers in the past two months, FPIs again made a comeback in the Indian stock markets in November and pumped in Rs 9,000 crore amid fall in US treasury bond yields and the resilience of the domestic market. Traders will be taking encouragement as the finance ministry said GST collections jumped 15 per cent to nearly Rs 1.68 lakh crore in November on increased domestic activity and festive season buying. Goods and Services Tax (GST) mop-up was over Rs 1.45 lakh crore in November 2022. Besides, the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.54 billion to $597.94 billion for the week ending November 24. However, some cautiousness may come as Crisil report stated that States' debt will remain elevated at 31-32 per cent of their gross domestic product amid higher capital outlays and moderate revenue growth this fiscal, with overall borrowings likely to rise by 9 per cent to over Rs 87 lakh crore. Meanwhile, markets regulator Sebi has extended the deadline till April 1, 2024 for the implementation of the framework for handling complaints received through the SCORES platform for registered entities and for monitoring such grievances by designated bodies. There will be some buzz in sugar industry stocks as cooperative body NFCSFL said India's sugar production was down by 10.65 per cent at 4.32 million tonne during October-November, the first two months of the ongoing 2023-24 season. Sugar season runs from October to September. The production stood at 4.83 million tonne in the year-ago period.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

20,267.90

20,203.89

20,311.74

BSE Sensex

67,481.19

67,232.07

67,647.33

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

311.92

130.00

128.60

130.85

NTPC

291.21

268.95

261.99

275.69

Power Grid

207.19

210.00

208.81

211.81

ITC

193.36

449.15

440.71

454.26

ICICI Bank

169.86

947.50

936.34

955.34

  • Maruti Suzuki India has reported a 3.39 per cent rise in total sales at 1,64,439 units in November 2023 as compared to 1,59,044 units in the same month last year.
  • UltraTech Cement is all set to acquire the cement business of BK Birla Group's flagship company Kesoram Industries in an all-share deal, with a business valuation of around Rs 7,600 crore, including debt.
  • Titan Company's flagship brand -- Tanishq has opened its two stores in Texas as part of its global business expansion strategy and to cater to the growing needs of the Indian diaspora in the US.
  • Hero MotoCorp has sold 4,91,050 units in November 2023. This translates into a growth of 25.61% over the corresponding month of November 2022, when the company had sold 3,90,932 units.

News Analysis