Rallying for the fourth straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended at fresh record closing highs on Monday supported by positive cues from Asian markets. Hectic buying in index majors Reliance Industries, ITC and Bajaj Finance also added to the market momentum. Markets made a positive start and stayed in green for whole day as sentiments got boost with Finance Ministry stating that GST collections rose 12 per cent to over Rs 1.61 lakh crore in June. The gross GST collection has crossed Rs 1.60 lakh crore mark for the fourth time since the roll-out of the indirect tax regime six years ago on July 1, 2017. Some optimism also came with report stating that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. Additional support came with the labour ministry stating that retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 4.42 per cent in May 2023 from 5.09 per cent in April and 6.97 per cent during the corresponding month a year before, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. However, indices trimmed some of their gains in late morning deals as traders got concerned after India's manufacturing sector showed a slowdown in June as compared to May. According to S&P Global India, the country's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.8 in June from 58.7 in May. But, markets regained traction in afternoon deals, amid reports that the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms reached a record high of Rs 297.94 lakh crore in early trade on Monday as the benchmark Sensex hit the 65,000 mark for the first time ever amid bullish investor sentiments. Traders continued to take support with Care Ratings' latest report stating that banks' net interest margin (NIM), a key profitability gauge, grew 46 basis points (bps) to 3.3 per cent in the January-March quarter (Q4FY23), driven by slower deposit rate resetting. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 486.49 points or 0.75% to 65,205.05 and the CNX Nifty was up by 133.50 points or 0.70% to 19,322.55.

The US markets ended slightly higher on Monday. The markets closed early ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. The choppy trading on markets came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves amid uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets.  A number of traders also remained away from their desks amid an abbreviated trading session and the 4th of July holiday on Tuesday. When trading resumes, the focus will shift to the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting along with the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report. Recent data has pointed to a resilient U.S. economy, while slowing inflation has added to optimism about the outlook for interest rates. While the Fed is still widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point later this month, traders are hopeful that will be end of the rate-hiking cycle. In stock specific development, Tesla shares jumped 6.9% after the electric vehicle maker reported delivery and production numbers that beat street expectations. Other electric vehicle stocks including Rivian, Fisker and Lucid rose in tandem.  On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management released a report showing manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted at a slightly faster rate in the month of June. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI edged down to 46.0 in June from 46.9 in May, with a reading below 50 indicating contraction. The dip surprised street, who had expected the index to inch up to 47.2.

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday amid concerns about the outlook for energy demand following a drop in global factory activity in the month of June. A report from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing activity in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted at a slightly faster rate in the month of June. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI edged down to 46.0 in June from 46.9 in May, with a reading below 50 indicating contraction. The dip surprised street, who had expected the index to inch up to 47.2. However, oil prices rose in early trade as Saudi Arabia announced it would extend a 1 million barrel-a-day production cut through August and Russia said it would cut exports this month by 500,000 barrels a day. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery dropped $0.85 or about 1.2 percent to settle at $69.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for September delivery fell $0.76 or 1 percent to settle at $74.65 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, as sustained foreign fund inflows and a bullish trend in domestic equities strengthened investors' sentiments. Traders took encouragement with Ministry of Finance's statement that India's gross GST revenue collection in June stood at Rs 1,61,497 crore, registering a 12 per cent year-on-year rise. Investors overlooked a report stating that India's manufacturing sector showed a slowdown in June as compared to May. According to S&P Global India, the country's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.8 in June from 58.7 in May. On the global front, pound fell against the dollar on Monday as the U.S. currency rebounded from a tumble late the previous week, while traders continued to grapple with what expectations of several more Bank of England rate hikes mean for the British currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.95 (Provisional), stronger by 15 paise from its previous close of 82.10 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22435.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 10585.99 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2287.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 1417.22 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 45.39 crore.

The US markets ended with slim gains in a holiday-shortened session on Monday, helped by a surge in Tesla and strength in bank shares as the second half of the year kicked off on a subdued note. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points. Indian markets extended their winning run to fourth straight session on Monday as investors lapped up shares of PSU banks and metals, and heavyweights like HDFC twins, Reliance Industries. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,995.92 crore on July 3. Some support will come as provisional data by the Reserve Bank of India showed India's services exports in May climbed 7.7% on year to $27.06 billion, while imports rose 2% to $15.5 billion. The government's first preliminary estimates released mid-June had shown services exports stood at $25.3 billion, while services imports were at $13.53 billion. Traders may take note of report that the World Bank and World Trade Organization (WTO) said India doubled its share of global commercial services exports to 4.4% in 2022 from 2% in 2005. However, there may be some cautiousness as data from project tracker the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed that new investment projects announced in the manufacturing sector declined in the three months ended June 2023. The value of new projects was lower than in the March quarter, as well as the year-ago period. PSBs will be in focus with a private report that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will hold a meeting of chiefs of public sector banks (PSBs) on July 6, which is likely to focus on the performance review of the lenders on financial inclusion as well as on various financial parameters. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as the Ministry of Coal achieved an increase in coal production at a growth rate of 8.40 per cent during the first quarter of the financial year (FY) 2023-24. The cumulative coal production surged from 205.65 million tonnes (mt) (same period last year) to 222.93 mt this year. Meanwhile, shares of HMA Agro Industries will debut on the BSE and NSE on Tuesday. The IPO had received 1.62 times subscription, and the final issue price was set at Rs 585 per share.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Tata Motors is all set to hike prices of its passenger vehicles with effect from July 17, 2023. 
• UltraTech Cement's consolidated sales increased 19.64 percent to 29.96 million tonne in the first quarter ended June 2023. 
• Mahindra & Mahindra has reported a 15.40 per cent rise in its overall auto sales at 62,429 units for the month of June 2023, as compared to 54096 units for June 2022.
• Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has clocked around 101.4 MMT of total cargo volumes during Q1FY24 which is a strong 11.5% Year-on-Year growth.