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NSE Intra-day chart (03 January 2022)
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Market Commentary 04 January 2022
Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start following global indices

 

Indian equity benchmarks started the year 2022 on a firm note and gained over one and half percent on Monday. After a strong uptick, the benchmarks moved from strength to strength, on the back of healthy buying in the banking and financial pack even as investors remained cautious over the spike in Omicron cases. Sentiments got a boost as the Finance Ministry said GST revenue collected in December 2021 was over Rs 1.29 lakh crore, 13 per cent higher than the same month last year. The gross GST revenue collected in the month of December 2021 is Rs 1,29,780 crore, of which CGST is Rs 22,578 crore, SGST is Rs 28,658 crore, IGST is Rs 69,155 crore and cess is Rs 9,389 crore. Sentiments also remained up-beat with private report that India is likely to have one of the highest rates of growth in the world as there are gradual moves towards normalization, even as stimulus and support for vulnerable sectors continue. It further said sticking to the announced consolidation path by the government in the upcoming budget will give a good signal of control and predictability. Frontline equity indices extended gains in second half of trading session, taking support from Crisil Ratings' report that Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) showed resilience in 2021 despite the coronavirus pandemic woes and are expected to witness continued momentum in growth in 2022. Traders remained optimistic after data showing that growth of eight core infrastructure industries grew 3.1 percent in November 2021 as against 1.1 percent contraction in same month last year. In October 2021, these core sectors' output had grown by 8.4 percent. However, traders overlooked report that India's manufacturing activity lost some momentum in December easing to a three month low after hitting a 10 month high in November, amid fears that the rapidly spreading third wave of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic may hit consumer sentiment and output. As per the survey report, the Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance - eased to 55.5 in December from November's ten-month high of 57.6. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 929.40 points or 1.60% to 59,183.22 and the CNX Nifty was up by 271.65 points or 1.57% to 17,625.70.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday on optimism the economy will stay on the recovery track despite the surge in coronavirus cases in several parts of the globe. Among the significant contributors to the market's surge were Apple Inc and Tesla Inc. (TSLA). Apple Inc shares gained more than 2.5 percent, hitting an all-time high. It became the first company to hit $3 trillion market capitalization. Shares of Tesla Inc climbed 13.5 percent thanks to the company's quarterly deliveries beating estimates. Tesla announced it delivered 308,600 vehicles in Q4, beating estimates of 263,026. Meanwhile, Bank stocks moved higher as Treasury yields advanced. Shares from, automobile, aviation and energy sectors also posted impressive gains. Wells Fargo surged up 5.8 percent thanks to a rating upgrade of the stock by Barclays. Goldman Sachs, Intel, Boeing, American Express, Visa and JP Morgan Chase climbed 2 to 3.5 percent. Walgreens Boots Alliance, IBM, Chevron and Walt Disney also closed with strong gains. On the economic data front, a report from the Commerce Department showed US construction spending increased 0.4 percent in November amid strong gains in single-family homebuilding. However, outlays on public projects were weak. Street had expected construction spending to climb 0.6 percent. Construction spending increased 9.3% on a year-on-year basis in November. Spending on private construction projects rose 0.6 percent in November. Outlays on residential construction surged 0.9 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Monday amid hopes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will stick to their plan to raise monthly crude production by the previously decided 400,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Tuesday to determine production levels for February. Further, oil's uptick was also due to reports that Libya, one of OPEC's more important oil drillers, will likely lose about 200,000 barrels daily in output over the next week because of a damaged pipeline. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery gained $0.87 or 1.2 percent to settle at $76.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery rose $1.20 or 1.50 percent to settle at $78.98 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders remained positive as data showing that growth of eight core infrastructure industries grew 3.1 percent in November 2021 as against 1.1 percent contraction in same month last year. However, upside remain capped as India's manufacturing activity lost some momentum in December easing to a three month low after hitting a 10 month high in November, amid fears that the rapidly spreading third wave of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic may hit consumer sentiment and output. As per the survey report, the Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI eased to 55.5 in December from November's ten-month high of 57.6. On the global front, dollar ticked up against its major rivals as an upbeat market mood on Monday lifted European equities and government bond yields for the first day of trading of 2022. Finally, the rupee ended 74.28 (Provisional), stronger by 1 paise from its previous close of 74.29 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4076.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 3442.42 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 234.63 crore with gross sales of Rs 205.38 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.65 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday with Apple becoming the first company to hit the $ 3 trillion market capitalization mark. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday following overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets surged 1.6 percent each on Monday led by broad-based gains except healthcare shares, which succumbed to selling pressure. Today, the markets are likely to make flat-to-positive start following gains in global markets. Traders will be taking encouragement as the country's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said India expects to achieve its export target of $400 billion in the current fiscal year that runs through March. He added India's exports in the April-December period came to about $300 billion. December, 2021 also saw the highest ever level of monthly outbound trade at $37 billion. Traders may take note of report that India has sought an emergency meeting of the General Council of the World Trade Organization (WTO) this month in Geneva to deliberate upon the world trade body's proposed response package, including patent waiver proposal, to deal with the pandemic amid rising coronavirus infections globally. Though, there may be some cautiousness as data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed unemployment rate in the country touched a four-month high of 7.91 per cent in December 2021. It added the unemployment rate had stood at 7 per cent in November, the highest since August which was at 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, to push digital transactions in rural and semi-urban areas, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued a framework allowing offline payments up to Rs 200 per transaction, subject to an overall limit of Rs 2,000. There will be some buzz in the insurance industry stocks as Regulator Irdai came out with guidelines to ensure orderly development of the surety insurance business and surety bonds market. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as industry body ISMA said Indian sugar mills are still waiting for global sugar prices to rise to enter into further export deals. It added owing to fall in global prices of raw sugar, not many export contracts happened in the last one month or so, beyond the 38-40 lakh tonne of export contracts which have already been signed. Also, sugar cooperatives body NFCSFL said the country's sugar production is estimated to have risen by 4.75 per cent to 115.70 lakh tonne during the October-December period of the 2021-22 season. There will be some reaction in select banking stocks as an assessment by rating agency ICRA suggested that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of small finance banks (SFBs) is expected to go up by 70-80 basis points (bps) by the end of the current financial year (FY22) compared to FY21 levels.

 

                                Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,625.70

17,457.11

17,720.46

BSE Sensex

59,183.22

58,570.99

59,530.93

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

327.48

496.80

492.25

501.10

Coal India

294.86

155.35

149.59

158.54

State Bank of India

131.24

471.50

463.74

475.64

ICICI Bank

96.53

765.50

750.34

773.34

NTPC

90.34

126.25

125.11

126.96

 

  • Coal India's coal production has increased by 3.3% to 60.2 million tonnes in December, 2021 as against 58.3 MT in December 2020. 
  • Tata Motors has reported 24 percent rise in total sales to 66,307 units in December 2021 as compared to 53,430 units the same month last year. 
  • NTPC is planning to acquire 5 per cent equity stake in Power Exchange of India (PXIL) that provides various electricity trading options. 
  • Hero MotoCorp has reported highest-ever sales in global markets outside of India in any calendar year.
News Analysis