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NSE Intra-day chart (02 November 2021)
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Market Commentary 03 November 2021
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start on Thursday

 

Indian equity benchmarks moved between gains and losses on Tuesday before ending the day in red, on account of selling pressure in heavyweights like Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies and Reliance Industries. Domestic markets started trade in the green, as traders took some support with provisional data released by the government showed that India's merchandise exports in October rose 42.33 per cent to $35.47 billion. The exports stood at $24.92 billion in October 2020 and $26.23 billion in October 2019. Some support also came with SBI Research's report stating that the digitisation drive and pandemic-induced emergence of the gig economy have led to a faster formalisation of the economy, with the share of the informal sector shrinking to just 15-20 per cent in 2021 from 52.4 per cent in 2018. Adding to the optimism, Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection remained above Rs 1 lakh crore for the fourth month in a row at over Rs 1.30 lakh crore in October, indicating the impact of festive buying. This is the second highest collection of GST since its implementation on July 1, 2017. However, markets lost momentum along the way and slipped into red in late afternoon session, as traders turned anxious with Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy (CMIE) data showing that despite a 124 basis points month-on-month decline in urban joblessness rate, the country's overall unemployment rate rose again in October, owing to a sudden 175 basis points rise in rural joblessness rate. Some concern also came amid reports that for the first time this fiscal, the weighted average cost of states' market borrowings crossed the 7 percentage mark at the auctions held on Monday with the average cut-off jumping by 12 bps to 7.02 per cent. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 109.40 points or 0.18% to 60,029.06 and the CNX Nifty was down by 40.70 points or 0.23% to 17,888.95.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday even as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to announce plans to begin gradually scaling back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases by mid-November or December. The language of the Fed's statement is likely to be in focus as traders look for clues about the outlook for interest rates amid concerns about the high rate of inflation. The strength that emerged on markets partly reflected recent upward momentum, as traders reacted to another batch of upbeat earnings news. Athletic apparel maker Under Armour (UAA) moved sharply higher after reporting third quarter earnings that exceeded street estimates and raising its full-year outlook. Shares of Pfizer (PFE) also showed a strong move to the upside after the drugmaker reported better than expected third quarter results and raised its full-year guidance. Chemical maker DuPont (DD) also posted a standout gain after reporting third quarter results that exceeded expectations. DuPont also announced an agreement to acquire materials technology company Rogers Corp. (ROG) for $5.2 billion in cash.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday amid concerns about growth after data showed a slowdown in Eurozone manufacturing activity amid rising input costs due to supply chain bottlenecks and logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+ will meet on Thursday to decide on output levels. The alliance is expected to stick to the gradual, monthly production increases of 400,000 barrels per day. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $0.14 or about 0.2 percent to settle at $83.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery declined $0.18 or 0.2 percent to settle at $84.53 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Tuesday due to selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Rupee got support as provisional data released by the government showed that India's merchandise exports in October rose 42.33 per cent to $35.47 billion. The exports stood at $24.92 billion in October 2020 and $26.23 billion in October 2019. In another positive development SBI Research's report stated that the digitisation drive and pandemic-induced emergence of the gig economy have led to a faster formalisation of the economy, with the share of the informal sector shrinking to just 15-20 per cent in 2021 from 52.4 per cent in 2018. On the global front, dollar fell on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia sounded a more dovish tone than expected, in the first of several meetings of central banks this week. Finally, the rupee ended 74.68, stronger by 19 paise from its previous close of 74.87 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net seller in equity segment, while net buyer in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9398.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 9676.19 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 209.77 crore with gross sales of Rs 139.58 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 23.46 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as a strong earnings season continued to lift sentiment for equities. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the conclusion of a key Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. Indian markets closed a volatile session lower on Tuesday, resuming their losing streak after a day's break on weak global cues as investors remained cautious ahead of the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings. Today, markets are likely to make cautious start on Wednesday ahead of long weekend holiday on account of Diwali amid mixed global cues and the ongoing earnings season. Investors will be eyeing the Services PMI data to be out later in the day. Traders will be taking encouragement as Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar said Indian economy is expected to grow by 10 per cent or more in the current fiscal, and 8 per cent plus in the next fiscal year. Kumar further said that seven years of the Modi government has laid a strong economic foundation for businesses to thrive in India. Sentiments will get boost as Minister of State for Electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar said India has an unprecedented opportunity to grow electronics manufacturing to $300 billion in the next 3-4 years, building on scale, competitiveness, large market and enabling policies. Some support will come with a private report stating that hiring activity expanded by 43 per cent year-on-year in October driven by strong demand for technology professionals. According to the report, with 2,523 job listings in October 2021, there was a 43 per cent year-on-year (Y-O-Y) growth. However, there may be some cautiousness with a report that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have offloaded Rs 5,476 crore worth of shares in November already. This comes on the heels of net sales of Rs 13,550 crore last month-the highest single month net sales since March 2020. There will be some reaction in banking stocks as the RBI issued a revised Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework for banks to enable supervisory intervention at appropriate time and also act as a tool for effective market discipline. It said capital, asset quality and leverage will be the key areas for monitoring in the revised framework. Auto stocks will be in focus as automobile dealers' body FADA termed the current festive season as the worst in terms of business in a decade for its retail partners across the country. The industry body said the chip shortage situation has impacted offtake in the passenger vehicle segment. Meanwhile, IPOs of Policybazaar, SJS Enterprises, and Sigachi Industries will close for subscription today. While the issue of SJS Enterprises is yet to fully subscribed, that of Policybazaar has been bid for 1.59 times by investors with retail investors and Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) oversubscribing their quota. Sigachi Industries' public issue has been subscribed 23.12 times with NIIs and retail investors heavily oversubscribing the issue.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,888.95

17,820.29

17,984.94

BSE Sensex

60,029.06

59,800.16

60,339.55

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

515.80

488.05

479.70

503.20

State Bank of India

267.97

522.00

514.36

527.31

NTPC

215.25

136.85

134.30

140.10

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

206.09

152.60

151.04

154.49

Sun Pharma

176.08

813.95

785.80

839.05

 

  • Maruti Suzuki India has commenced bookings for its much awaited, stylish All-New Celerio. 
  • IOC is planning to invest Rs 3,681 crore in setting up India's first mega-scale Maleic Anhydride Plant to manufacture value-added chemical products at its PRPC in Haryana.
  • Coal India's supply of coal to power producers registered a 23 percent y-o-y jump to 48.2 million tonnes in October. 
  • NTPC has commenced commercial operation of first part capacity of 80 MW of 160 MW Jetsar Solar PV Project at Rajasthan with effect from October 10, 2021, consequent upon successful commissioning and due approvals.
News Analysis